BRAZIL`S BRUTAL DRUG RAID EXPOSES LULA`S POLITICAL WEAKNESS / THE FINANCIAL TIMES OP EDITORIAL

Brazil’s brutal drug raid exposes Lula’s political weakness

A lethal police operation against gangs reveals how centrists and leftists are failing to address crime

Will Freeman

The funeral of a police officer killed during a raid on a drug trafficking gang in Rio de Janeiro. Four police officers died during the action which left at least 132 people dead © Fabricio Sousa/AP

Less than 24 hours after the deadliest police operation in Brazil’s history — which targeted Rio de Janeiro’s largest gang and left at least 132 people dead — the state’s right-wing governor Cláudio Castro offered his assessment: “A success, save the death of four police.” 

He said this despite police plans leaking, a top gang leader evading arrest and major roads, schools and hospitals paralysed. 

Still, 62 per cent of Rio residents polled were in favour of the action.

And from the country’s leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva? 

For hours, nothing. 

Not informed about the operation in advance and “appalled” by the death toll, according to Brazil’s justice minister, Lula only belatedly posted: “We cannot accept that organised crime continues to destroy families, oppress residents, and spread drugs and violence throughout our cities.”

There is no better illustration of where the right and left stand on organised crime in the Americas today. 

The right, Maga included, has a stance: maximal lethality for maximal political gain. 

The centre and left hope the issue goes away. It’s a losing proposition. 

Even if the right’s tactics — Trump’s boat strikes, fresh US terrorist designations, or Rio’s killings — do little to weaken criminal groups, they work as theatre. 

They keep public attention trained on an issue the right dominates and on which the centre and left often look rudderless. 

This is counter-narcotics as campaign strategy. 

Trump is not the first practitioner. 

Latin America has its own history of “punitive populism”; lethal law enforcement tactics designed more to rally the public than to effectively suppress crime. 

Still, Trump’s boat strikes and talk of “war”— met with only muted, muddled criticism by Democrats — are creating a new, broadened permission structure. 

Regional right-wing leaders are lining up to assist and emulate. 

Flávio Bolsonaro, a possible 2026 contender and son of Brazil’s ex-president, openly pines for US strikes on “drug boats” in Rio’s Guanabara Bay. 

Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa wants direct US military intervention while angling to purge the country’s constitutional court, arguing that it obstructs his anti-crime fight (really, he is frustrated it limits executive power). 

Paraguay’s president races to copy US foreign terrorist designations — even as his party has a notorious record of drug corruption. 

Rightwing politicians are obviously courting Trump with these moves but they are also playing domestic politics, pouncing on opportunities to focus public attention on their opponents’ perceived weaknesses.

The Rio violence could hardly be worse for Lula or more convenient for his prospective 2026 challengers. 

Until a few days ago, Lula was coasting on broad public backlash to US tariffs, an apparent rapprochement with Trump, momentum on a progressive income tax reform, the conviction of his coup-plotting predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, and hosting the upcoming COP30 summit. But now the focus is back on crime — an issue on which he is underwater. 

As with many leftist leaders, it’s partly his own fault: he waited too long to prioritise security and resisted describing gangs as the predatory organisations they are (drug traffickers are “victims of the [drug] user”, Lula insisted just last week). 

At the same time, right-wing governors and lawmakers have so far torpedoed his efforts to boost state-federal co-operation, which might be Brazil’s best shot at meaningfully curbing its gangs.

For the dynamic to change, centrist and leftists across the hemisphere must not only critique government lethality and illegality, but also propose criminal laws, policing tactics, and prosecutorial strategies to dismantle criminal gangs. 

If they do not, there will be more episodes like the killings in Rio: more brutal, and brutally effective, political theatre. 

The writer is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations