Trump Flips the Global Script
His diplomatic moves on Ukraine and Gaza were both dazzling and unconventional.
By Walter Russell Mead
What a week: Suspected Russian drones disrupted air traffic across northern Europe while Moscow pounded Kyiv with record-breaking assaults.
In the Middle East both fighting and diplomacy intensified.
Throughout it all, the least conventional and most chaos-loving American president of all time still managed to dominate the world’s headlines.
On Gaza, President Trump pledged to Arab leaders on Sept. 23 that he wouldn’t allow Israel to annex any portion of the West Bank.
That opened a new chapter in the difficult conversations over the end of the war and prepared the way for a major peace initiative.
On Ukraine, Mr. Trump sent a stream of signals about a toughening anti-Russia stance that encouraged Ukrainians and challenged Europe.
By demanding that Europeans dial up sanctions against Russia and signaling potential willingness to send Ukraine powerful American weapons systems like the Tomahawk missiles while removing any limits on how deep into Russia Kyiv could attack, Mr. Trump has, rhetorically at least, seized the high ground on the Ukraine conflict.
He has pivoted his administration away from its earlier efforts to cajole Vladimir Putin into a compromise peace.
Both moves were typical Trump.
They seized the spotlight, keeping him at the center of world politics and drama.
They changed the narrative, reframing discussions over both Gaza and Ukraine.
They emphasized Mr. Trump’s commanding stature by contrasting the effect of his words with the sputtering fecklessness of other heads of state.
And they didn’t commit him to anything unpleasant or cost him anything serious.
Mr. Trump demonstrated power and flexibility by combining deep support for Israel with demands that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abandon any plans to annex Palestinian territory and that he call the Qatari prime minister to apologize for violating Qatar’s sovereignty by bombing Hamas officials there.
Mr. Trump also presented the latest version of his evolving peace plan.
After stunning victories against Iran and its proxies, Israel is the strongest power in the Middle East, and Mr. Trump’s is the only voice Israel takes seriously.
The president’s assertion that his peace plan will resolve thousands of years of conflict in the Middle East may prove optimistic.
But there is no denying that he has made more progress than any other head of state in working out a solution to the Gaza war.
By embracing Israel while listening to Arab leaders, Mr. Trump has given diplomacy a much-needed boost.
The Gulf Arabs want stability and economic development in the region.
Israelis want peace.
Mr. Trump is doing his best to provide a framework within which Arabs and Israelis alike can progress toward these goals.
Mr. Trump’s flip on Ukraine and Russia illustrates his Houdini-like ability to escape predicaments that would entrap conventional politicians.
At one level, Team Trump’s Russia policy of reaching out to Mr. Putin has failed as decisively as Barack Obama’s “reset button” or Joe Biden’s effort to “park Russia.”
In a rare acknowledgment of error, Mr. Trump told French President Emmanuel Macron that the relationship he thought he had with Mr. Putin “didn’t mean anything.”
As the Kremlin responded to Washington’s conciliatory efforts with scarcely concealed contempt, Mr. Trump needed a new approach.
What he has done is flip the script by pivoting toward the Ukrainians.
But as Europeans like Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk soon noticed, Mr. Trump’s new approach puts the ball in Europe’s court.
If European support fails to meet Mr. Trump’s high demands (like slapping massive tariffs on India and China to penalize their purchases of Russian oil and gas), the American president will be able to put the blame on weak Europeans—and to wash his hands and walk away.
None of this costs Mr. Trump anything.
Neither in Gaza nor in Europe is Mr. Trump sending troops nor spending money.
Nor has he tied his hands.
Both in the Middle East and Europe, the American president can take whatever action he wants.
These diplomatic moves over both Gaza and Ukraine were, like so much of what this president does, both unconventional and dazzling.
If diplomacy were ballet, Mr. Trump would be a Nijinsky.
But not even the greatest dancers can repeal the law of gravity.
The president’s ability to exploit the advantages of America’s hegemonic role in European and Middle East politics is unrivaled, but the final impact of his approach on the eroding foundations of American power remains to be seen.
His ambition to rank as a great statesman has become clearer in his second term.
He is focusing more intensely on foreign affairs than many expected, and he is having a greater effect on the world than more-conventional political figures can.
He will have to make progress on the great challenges American power faces in a changing world.
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