Could Turkey and Pakistan Become Israel’s Next Targets?
Overextension could be a major challenge for future Israeli leaders.
By: Hilal Khashan
These moves effectively scaled down the Arab-Israeli war to an Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Arab countries subsequently lost interest in the Palestinian cause, choosing instead to focus on domestic concerns.
However, following the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set his sights on a broader project, pledging to transform the entire Middle East.
Having won the conflict with Arab countries years ago, Israel now seems intent on taking on the Islamic world.
And here, its primary targets could be Turkey and Pakistan.
Standoff With Turkey
Israel does not want to see a stronger military power than itself emerge, not only in the Middle East but also in the Islamic world.
It wants to be able to operate militarily as it pleases without facing a deterrent force.
However, the great leaps Turkey is taking in its defense industry and the rapid development of its domestic weapons threaten Israel.
Early last month, the recently established Turkish National Intelligence Academy published an extensive study on the Israel-Iran war, suggesting that Turkey could face a similar conflict in the future.
The study determined that Iran suffered heavy losses due to Israel’s military superiority and intelligence technologies, as well as U.S. support.
It also highlighted the importance of airpower in short-term wars, particularly between countries that do not share a land border.
Thus, Turkey has deemed critical the development of its defense industry and modernization of its aging air force.
It has been actively pursuing both goals in recent years.
It’s seeking to purchase 40 F-16 Block 70 Vipers from the U.S. and 40 Eurofighter jets from Germany, in addition to maintaining and modernizing its existing F-16 fleet.
The study also recommended that Turkey acquire a multilayered air defense system deployed across the country, as well as install early warning systems and nationwide shelters.
A key motive behind Turkey’s efforts to end the Kurdish issue through the “Turkey Without Terror” project is to strengthen the domestic front, given its importance in the event of war.
Hence Ankara’s interest in Syria, which has its own active Kurdish separatist movement.
Here, Turkey and Israel have conflicting interests.
In fact, Syria’s fate is the most divisive issue between the two countries.
While Turkey believes Syria must be strong and united, Israel is working to divide Syria and is wary of growing Turkish military and political influence there.
Damascus seeks to peacefully end the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces’ control over Syrian territory in the northeast, and Ankara supports this approach.
However, all indications point to the SDF’s insistence on pursuing its separatist project with Israeli support.
A military confrontation between the Syrian army, supported by Turkey, and the SDF, backed by Israel, is likely inevitable.
Many Turks believe that Israel’s ultimate objective is to encourage efforts to form an independent Kurdish state, linking northeast Syria with southern Turkey and possibly northern Iraq.
Some Turks fear that Israel is looking for a confrontation with Turkey before Ankara can build up its deterrent military capabilities.
The leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, Devlet Bahceli, has accused Israel of trying to divide Syria and using the SDF to do its bidding.
Bahceli has also stressed that a joint Turkish-Syrian military intervention would be inevitable if the SDF did not implement the terms of an agreement it signed with the government in Damascus last March.
Pakistan’s Concerns
Then there’s Pakistan, which fears it could become an easy target for Israel and India if Iran collapses.
In June, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief of staff at the White House to urge Islamabad to remain neutral and refrain from supporting Iran militarily against Israel.
Pakistan is unlikely to intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict, given its keenness to avoid antagonizing Trump and to preserve U.S. military aid.
It’s also hesitant to come to Iran’s defense because the two countries are strategic competitors.
Still, Pakistan was not comfortable with the Israeli attack on Iran.
It was concerned about the conflict’s future impact on Pakistani security, given Israel’s strong relations with India.
In the recent war with Pakistan, India relied heavily on Israeli drones.
Pakistan fears being targeted also due to its close relations with China.
Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has warned members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation about Israel’s intentions, stressing that unity among Islamic countries is imperative at this time.
Israel’s subsequent attack on Qatar only confirmed Asif’s concerns.
The minister further said Israel’s actions constituted a threat to regional and international security.
Israel, with its unchecked nuclear capabilities, poses a threat to world peace, he asserted.
After Pakistan’s condemnation of Israel’s attacks on Iran, Israeli press and officials pointed to false statements allegedly from Islamabad threatening to use nuclear weapons against Israel and claiming that Pakistan has already supplied Iran with ballistic missiles.
Some Israeli media outlets also claimed that Pakistan informed France and the United States that its army would enter the war against Israel if another country directly intervened in the campaign against Iran.
In a speech before Pakistan’s Senate, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said this information was fake and misleading, stressing that his country had not issued any threat to use nuclear weapons and that Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs were solely for its own defense.
Neither France nor the United States has said that they have received any threat from Pakistan to join Iran if the U.S. or European countries intervene on Israel’s behalf.
Israel’s military strategy rests on the concept of preemptive strikes against its real or perceived enemies.
In 1981, the Israeli air force destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor at Osirak, and last June, it launched a 12-day war to destroy Iran’s nuclear program.
However, Pakistan’s atomic program at the Kahuta facility, near the Indian border, has previously survived Israeli attempts to destroy it.
Pakistan began secretly accelerating its nuclear program after its 1971 war with India, which led to the secession of Bangladesh (then called East Pakistan) from Pakistan.
It had become clear that India was on the verge of developing a nuclear bomb.
In 1982, Pakistani intelligence discovered that the Indian air force, in collaboration with the Israeli air force, planned to attack Pakistani nuclear facilities.
According to the plan, Israeli aircraft would take off from an Indian air base in Jamnagar and refuel at a secondary airport in northern India.
They would follow a Himalayan route to avoid early radar detection before entering Pakistani airspace.
Anticipating an attack, the Pakistani air force was on alert for signs of an assault, forcing the Israeli aircraft to abort the mission.
For the Pakistanis, there is a deep connection between what happened to Iran and what Pakistan could face in the future.
Thus, when Israel launched a large-scale attack on Iran, Pakistani leaders felt the Israeli threat was creeping closer to Pakistani territory.
Pakistan’s statements in support of Iran, therefore, go beyond religious or political solidarity.
There is a clear message that an attack on Iran would be a threat to Pakistani security.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made no secret of his concerns about Islamabad when he said that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons pose an existential threat to Israel and that his country must plan to eliminate them.
In 2011, he said that Iran and Pakistan posed a threat to Israel, that Islamabad would be the next target after Tehran, and that his highest-order mission was to prevent Islamic regimes from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Israel’s unease also relates to Pakistan’s engagement in previous Middle Eastern wars on the Arab side.
Pakistan participated in the 1967 and 1973 wars against Israel.
In 1967, Pakistani pilots accompanied Jordanian and Iraqi pilots in shooting down Israeli aircraft.
In 1973, Pakistan sent military experts to advise the Syrian army and deployed several pilots who participated in protecting Damascus from Israeli aircraft.
In 1974, a Pakistani pilot shot down an Israeli Mirage fighter jet as part of the War of Attrition.
Pakistan also sheltered several Egyptian warships to protect them from Israeli airpower.
Conclusion
An open confrontation between Israel and Turkey or Pakistan is still just a possibility because the latter two prefer to focus on other challenges.
Turkey is trying to develop its economy, while simultaneously addressing its military gaps.
Pakistan, meanwhile, is focused on what it perceives as India’s existential threat, for which it developed its nuclear program.
However, in comparison to its conflicts against Arab countries, Israel might find a bigger challenge in Turkey and Pakistan.
Especially in a world of changing power dynamics, in which it can’t rely on continued unwavering U.S. support, Israel could fundamentally jeopardize its stability in pursuing this path.
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario