China’s economy expands at slowest pace in a year
Trade war and property downturn hit momentum as official GDP grows 4.8% in third quarter
Thomas Hale in Shanghai
China’s economy grew at its slowest pace in a year in the third quarter as a trade war with the US and a prolonged property downturn weighed on momentum.
Official GDP in the world’s second-largest economy rose 4.8 per cent year-on-year, compared with a 5.2 per cent rise in the second quarter.
Authorities have set a target of around 5 per cent for 2025.
The release comes as China’s top Communist Party officials meet to discuss their next five-year plan for 2026-2030.
It will add to pressure on policymakers who have for years battled to boost domestic demand in an economy that has relied heavily on exports and faced sustained deflation.
Fresh data showed the country’s property sector continued to struggle last month despite a raft of government support measures, including mortgage rate cuts.
New home prices in 70 major cities, excluding state-subsidised housing, fell by 0.41 per cent in September compared with a month earlier, the most in 11 months.
Property investment dropped 13.9 per cent in the year to the end of September.
Unlike other major economies, China does not provide a quarterly breakdown of its GDP by consumption, investment and net exports — the so-called expenditure approach to GDP measurement.
It publishes several separate activity gauges, including retail sales, which measure sales of goods and catering services and added 3 per cent year-on-year in September.
Weak spending has been a major source of concern across the Chinese economy, where the consumer price index fell 0.3 per cent last month.
Industrial output added 6.5 per cent in September year on year, well above expectations of 5 per cent among economists polled by Reuters, as well as August’s reading of 5.2 per cent.
“I think it’s still being driven by the external demand picture . . . we had a stronger than expected export number,” ING economist Lynn Song said of the industrial growth figure.
China’s exports have remained resilient, rising 8.3 per cent year on year last month, according to separate customs data last week.
Shipments to the US have plummeted but they have been rising to other regions, including south-east Asia.
Customs data published on Monday showed the volume of exports of rare earth magnets to the US fell 28.7 per cent in September compared with August.
China’s President Xi Jinping has spearheaded a crackdown on excessive competition, which has contributed to vicious price wars across its manufacturing heartlands.
Additional reporting by Haohsiang Ko in Hong Kong
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