US Middle East Strategy After Israel’s Doha Strike
The attack on Hamas in Qatar’s capital is aligning the region – but not in the way Washington wants.
By: Kamran Bokhari
Israel’s airstrikes targeting Hamas leaders in the Qatari capital represent an escalation with far-reaching strategic consequences.
The attack in Doha blindsided the U.S., exacerbated the rift between Israel and the Gulf Arab states and Turkey, and risks eroding regional confidence in U.S. security guarantees.
In its aftermath, the Trump administration’s blueprint for a new regional security architecture – which hinges on forging a balance of power among Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey – looks even more improbable.
Hours after Israeli missiles struck a Hamas compound in Doha on Sept. 9, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the move on social media.
While acknowledging the value of eliminating Hamas, he said Israel’s unilateral decision to attack Qatar – described as a close American ally working hard to secure peace in Gaza – did not advance U.S. or Israeli interests.
In a phone call with Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, Trump denied any U.S. involvement but offered assurances that “such a thing will not happen again on their soil.”
Since the last major Arab-Israeli conflict in 1973, the United States has maintained a balance of sorts between the Arab states and Israel.
In 1979, the U.S. brokered a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, marking the end of Israel’s conflict with the Arab states.
From then on, Israel’s chief adversaries were nonstate actors, which from the 1980s were increasingly Islamist and usually supported by Iran.
The U.S. military interventions in the region after 9/11 largely destroyed transnational jihadist groups such as al-Qaida and the Islamic State.
This, combined with the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, enabled Iran and its proxy network to emerge as the main actor in conflict with Israel.
In the meantime, the twin threat of Sunni Islamism and Iran-backed Shiite radicalism created a regional alignment among the U.S., Israel and the Arab states.
Under the first Trump administration, Washington sought to formalize this arrangement in the form of the Abraham Accords.
With the U.S. mediating, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalized relations with Israel, joining fellow Arab nations Jordan and Egypt.
The Abraham Accords were seen as a vehicle to counter Iran’s disproportionate influence in the Arab world.
The expectation was that the region’s most powerful Arab state and the world’s largest producer of crude, Saudi Arabia, would also join the fold.
Meanwhile, Turkey, which had failed to exploit the Arab Spring uprisings to carve out its own sphere of influence in the Arab world, also made a strategic decision to improve relations with the Arab states and reduce tensions with Israel.
Then came the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks on Israel, which launched the current regional conflict.
Those attacks were designed in great part to torpedo the Abraham Accords project.
It is no coincidence that a mere two weeks before the attacks, both de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that they were on the verge of an agreement.
After Hamas’ attack, however, Israel pounded Gaza in an attempt to eliminate Hamas, producing massive casualties, destruction and displacement – and derailing Saudi Arabia’s move toward normalization.
Israel’s military actions in the broader region did yield some positive results for the Arab states and Turkey.
For example, Israel decimated Hezbollah’s leadership, creating the conditions for Syria’s rebels to finally topple the Assad regime.
It also waged a 12-day war with Iran, during which at least some of Iran’s nuclear facilities were destroyed.
As a result, Iran has lost most of its regional influence and its regime is badly weakened.
With Tehran sidelined, the U.S. again prioritized creating a security architecture capable of balancing Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
But Iran’s neutralization came at a cost: It left Israel as the Middle East’s preeminent military force, capable of acting across the region.
Though pleased to see Iran and its proxies brought low by Israel, the Arab states are alarmed about the dramatic surge in Israel’s power projection capabilities.
So is Turkey, which for months has watched Israeli forces establish an ever-expanding buffer zone in southern Syria.
The Israeli military presence in Syria and its support for separatist Druze factions undermine Turkey’s efforts to stabilize the new Syrian regime.
Meanwhile, the Saudis, who also support Syria’s young regime, have been hoping that Washington can bring the Israel-Hamas war to an end so that they can lead efforts to rebuild and restore governance in Gaza.
They are also concerned about Israeli plans to annex large parts of the West Bank in response to the international push for the recognition of a Palestinian state.
Any such annexation could destabilize Jordan – which would be an intolerable situation for Riyadh.
In essence, Israel’s need for strategic depth – which is driving its expansionist policies – and the growing scope of its military operations are raising alarms for Saudi Arabia and the other major Arab states.
For them, Israel’s unexpected strike at Qatar is a game-changer.
That the United States is distancing itself from the attack is even more unsettling for the Gulf Arab states, which rely on the U.S. to guarantee their security and were already concerned about Washington’s global retrenchment strategy.
In the wake of the Israeli strike, the Arab states and Turkey will be more motivated to come up with their own security arrangements.
This will certainly involve greater alignment with Turkey, Egypt and even Pakistan, with whom the Saudis and the Gulf states have close ties.
In some ways, this is exactly what the U.S. has wanted – except that Washington’s version of a regional security framework involves balancing the Arab states, Turkey and Israel.
Given the conflict between Israel’s imperatives and those of the Arab states and Turkey, the American strategy is in jeopardy.
The Trump administration’s new challenge is to establish a modus vivendi between Israel and the Arab states and Turkey.
After this week's attack, this objective will be much more difficult to accomplish than it already was.
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