THE MYTH OF SAUDI POLITICAL STABILITY / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

The Myth of Saudi Political Stability

A burgeoning online opposition movement is the latest expression of widespread anger in the country.

By: Hilal Khashan

Saudi rulers often present the kingdom as an oasis of stability in a turbulent region. 

The reality, however, is far more complex. 

Since the early 1950s, Saudi Arabia has experienced several instances of protests, political violence, failed coups and royal family purges. 

Most recently, authorities have been attempting to curb a new social media phenomenon called the Free Masked Men, targeting the policies of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, commonly known as MBS.

The FMM launched just two weeks ago on social media platforms. 

Its members come from various regions of Saudi Arabia, including the capital, Riyadh, and the birthplace of Islam, Mecca. 

It has received support from self-exiled Saudis in Western Europe and North America, including defectors from the Saudi royal family.

What differentiates the FMM from previous protest movements is its avoidance of confrontation with the regime’s merciless coercive machinery. 

It has focused on social media to present its case and sway public opinion before planning its next move against MBS’ controversial policies. 

This essay examines the FMM within the context of past opposition movements and political violence in Saudi Arabia.

History of Dissent

Over the past several decades, Saudi Arabia has witnessed numerous waves of dissent and challenges to the political establishment. 

In the early 1950s, social forces demanding reform emerged on the Saudi political scene, particularly among workers for the Arab-American Oil Company in the Shiite-dominated Eastern Province. 

In 1952, Aramco employees formed a union committee, and the following year, they intensified their efforts to secure better working conditions. 

They demanded guaranteed union rights, wage increases, an end to racial discrimination against local workers, new housing for employees, transportation fees and the adoption of Arabic as the language of instruction in Aramco schools.

In 1956, Aramco workers began to demand political reforms as the Central Workers’ Committee declared a general strike. 

Among its demands were the enactment of a constitution, the legalization of political parties and national organizations, the guarantee of a right to organize unions, the abolition of the royal decree prohibiting strikes, and an end to Aramco’s interference in the country’s internal affairs. 

The government responded predictably: It violently suppressed the movement, arresting and torturing hundreds of workers, many of whom were given lengthy prison sentences.

By the late 1950s, a dispute between King Saud and then-Crown Prince Faisal over the separation of powers led to the emergence of the Najdi princes, who demanded political reforms and the granting of executive powers to the Council of Ministers. 

After the rift worsened, the Najdi princes left Saudi Arabia and eventually settled in Cairo, where Egyptian media referred to them as the Free Princes. 

While in Egypt, they called for the establishment of a liberal constitutional monarchy in the kingdom, though some observers grew suspicious of their intentions. 

When Faisal overthrew Saud in 1964, he pardoned the Free Princes, who then returned to the kingdom.

In 1969, senior Saudi air force officers attempted to overthrow the monarchy and declare an independent Republic of the Arabian Peninsula. 

The coup failed, resulting in the arrest of hundreds of officers. 

While King Faisal ordered the execution of the coup’s leaders, the fate of hundreds of junior officers and enlisted men remained unknown.

When the Iraqi army occupied Kuwait in 1990, King Fahd invited U.S. forces into Saudi Arabia to help liberate the country. 

The move angered Saudi Islamist movements, which objected to the use of what they saw as infidels to fight Muslims. 

As a result, clerics from the Sahwa movement began calling for political reform and the withdrawal of foreign forces from Saudi Arabia. 

King Fahd’s rejection of these demands and his persecution of Sahwa leaders led to political violence and the targeting of U.S. interests in the kingdom.

After the Sept. 11 attacks and the invasion of Afghanistan, Osama bin Laden established a Saudi branch of al-Qaida, which launched a series of terrorist operations in the country beginning in 2003. 

Then-Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef led efforts to eradicate the group by 2005. 

In 2015, however, King Salman removed him from the position of crown prince and appointed MBS in his place. 

Two years later, Nayef was arrested in a mass purge of prominent royal family members, businesspeople and activists. 

Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi was assassinated at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul the following year.

FMM Grievances

U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent visit to Saudi Arabia, during which he secured $600 billion in contracts and deals that many Saudis viewed as a nexus of corruption and exploitation, helped accelerate the rise of the FMM. 

Notably, young Saudis eager for change have also been energized by the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, which seemed unbreakable after more than 13 years of devastating civil war.

Aware of the regime’s extreme intolerance to public grievance, the FMM has opted to avoid direct contact with the security apparatus. 

Masked activists convey their messages online, occasionally resorting to nighttime graffiti on walls. 

The movement has criticized deteriorating living conditions, government-funded concerts and noisy nightclubs. 

It vows to bring down MBS, whom the group accuses of plundering the country’s wealth, misgovernance, violating citizens’ dignity and stifling freedom under the guise of reform. 

It denies affiliation with any political party and does not represent any religious or sectarian movement. 

Instead, it claims to be the voice of the oppressed, arguing that its supporters must remain veiled on social media because telling the truth has become a crime in Saudi Arabia.

In its inaugural proclamation, the FMM said its emergence came amid an unprecedented buildup of anger within the kingdom over systematic repression, the crushing of dissenting opinion, and the arrests of dozens of scholars, intellectuals and activists. 

Exorbitant taxes and subsidy cuts, as well as wasteful spending on mega projects, have accelerated the FMM’s rise. 

However, it has emphasized that the regime’s corruption is not limited to injustice, tyranny and the plundering of the people’s wealth but extends to its disregard for the fundamentals of Islamic law, its distortion of religious concepts, and its forcing of the people to embrace anti-Islamic ideas.

The movement views MBS’ cultural transformation policy as a gateway to moral decadence and the eradication of inherited traditions and religious piety. 

Its positions on a number of issues – including the lack of transparency in state administration, MBS' monopoly of power, the crackdown on the ruling family and traditional institutions, and the promotion of normalization with Israel – indicate that some al-Saud princes could be involved.

The government has imposed strict censorship on the media and digital platforms, shutting down all avenues of free expression. 

It also imposed economic policies that burdened Saudi citizens with taxes and fees and increased prices of goods and services. 

The FMM’s founders point out that MBS has impoverished the oil-rich country by pushing overly ambitious projects like NEOM and massive, futile arms deals. 

He has also increased the state’s debt, which exceeds $300 billion, according to official reports. 

Meanwhile, ordinary citizens face unemployment and rising living costs.

The FMM says it does not seek violence but rather an end to the militarization of public life and tyranny in the name of reform. 

It aims to evolve into a movement that mobilizes Saudi society, making change possible in an otherwise rigid political system. 

The appearance of FMM-linked graffiti has confirmed that it is a homegrown movement, contrary to the state-controlled media’s portrayal of it as orchestrated by foreign agents. 

Considering the severe consequences for speaking out against the Saudi government, it’s safe to conclude that what is happening today in Saudi Arabia is not just a passing movement but a popular awakening beginning to take shape.

Base of Support

For the first time since Ibn Saud established Saudi Arabia in 1932, a broad strata of Saudi society find themselves at odds with the country’s development policies. 

As a result, the digital uprising led by the FMM expresses an emerging collective consciousness that rejects tyranny and demands comprehensive, peaceful change. 

The widespread dissemination of angry messages posted by the FMM on social media reflects the extent of popular discontent in the kingdom, particularly as repressive policies continue and social crises escalate.

MBS has alienated many Saudis, including Bedouins who relocated to urban areas that are nothing less than slum-like. 

Many Saudi businesspeople are facing financial difficulties due to MBS’ efforts to restructure the country’s economy. 

Jeddah, meanwhile, has lost its role as the kingdom’s economic capital.

MBS has also sidelined senior princes, fearing one of them might replace him if he is ousted. 

The members of the royal family who could have fled the kingdom to avoid losing their wealth already did so years ago. 

Fearing they would coalesce against him in exile, MBS now requires princes suspected of disloyalty to ask for approval before traveling abroad.

Risky Endeavor

What is happening in Saudi Arabia today is a silent rebellion against MBS’ rule. 

What began as initiatives by masked individuals speaking out against injustice and tyranny has snowballed amid widespread feelings of resentment and anger. 

Undoubtedly, the threat to those who support the FMM is huge in a country that does not tolerate any form of dissent or hesitate to use prisons, secret trials and even executions to deter opponents.

Saudi security forces have already attempted to tamp down the burgeoning movement, while Saudi media and Wahhabi clerics have been critical of it. 

The media has accused Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood of supporting the movement. 

The past two weeks have witnessed large-scale arrests and a heightened security presence in most cities across the country. 

Wahhabi clerics have also issued fatwas prohibiting rebellion against the Saudi regime.

Reports from Saudi Arabia indicate an undeclared state of alert within the security services as they struggle to contain and dismantle the movement. 

In response to rising opposition, authorities intensified their political and security repression, arresting thousands of activists, preachers and intellectuals, even those affiliated with the official religious establishment.

The FMM could represent the beginning of a crack in Saudi society’s silence, especially since it comes from within the kingdom rather than from the exile community. 

It opens the door to the possibility of a homegrown opposition capable of mobilizing the public. 

The outcome, however, remains uncertain, given Arab dictators’ past willingness to destroy their countries instead of reconciling with their populations.