IN EUROPE, A BLACKOUT BRINGS HARD TRUTHS TO LIGHT / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

In Europe, a Blackout Brings Hard Truths to Light

The incident proves that true energy independence is a myth.

By: Antonia Colibasanu

On April 28, millions across Spain, Portugal and parts of France were plunged into darkness after a massive, unexpected power outage. 

Metro systems stalled, airports ground to a halt, hospitals switched frantically to backup generators and critical communication networks collapsed temporarily.

Though power has since been restored, the blackout sent a powerful message: Energy security is as interdependent as it is underreported. 

It’s not just about the availability of oil, gas or electricity; it’s about the fundamental ways societies are organized, how economies function and how citizens survive. 

Homes, hospitals, transport systems, financial markets and communications networks are all intricately bound to a continuous, stable flow of energy.

Moreover, the blackout was a reminder that energy security is inherently an international concept, laying bare just how interdependent European nations have become – not only in trade but also in the basic provision of everyday life. 

A fire in southern France, an unexpected grid oscillation in Spain, a blackout in Lisbon – all are threads in the same fabric. 

No matter how localized they appear at first, disruptions ripple outward through tightly linked infrastructure. 

In a geopolitical sense, this means that no single country can truly be “secure” on its own, and genuine energy independence does not exist. 

Energy security, therefore, must be understood as both a national priority and a shared European –even global – responsibility.

Vulnerabilities Exposed

Preliminary reports indicate that a fire, which damaged a high-voltage power line between the French cities of Perpignan and Narbonne, triggered failures throughout the interconnected grids of Spain and Portugal. 

Red Electrica, Spain’s grid operator, described a “strong oscillation” that disconnected it from the broader European network. 

The blackout's impact was widespread, affecting major urban centers and critical infrastructure. 

In Spain, cities like Madrid, Barcelona and Seville experienced significant disruptions, including halted metro services, non-functioning traffic lights and communication outages. 

Madrid’s Adolfo Suarez-Barajas international airport was also affected. 

Lisbon faced similar challenges as the metro system and traffic signals stopped operating. 

Hospitals resorted to backup generators to maintain essential services. 

The outage also extended to parts of southern France.

The blackout exposed the delicate balance that Europe’s energy interdependence rests on. 

The dream of a fully integrated European energy market promises efficiency and sustainability, but it also ties national stability to events beyond any single government’s control. 

For Portugal and Spain – countries already dealing with persistent vulnerabilities in their energy infrastructure – the blackout will likely lead to debates over the balance between energy autonomy and European integration.

Even before the April 28 crisis, both nations were navigating difficult discussions about their place within the EU’s evolving energy strategy. 

Spain has long advocated for more connection with the broader European grid. 

Yet projects like the MidCat natural gas pipeline – intended to link the Iberian gas network with France and, by extension, the rest of Europe – faced repeated delays and eventual cancellation in 2019, partly due to environmental concerns and French resistance. 

However, discussions around the project were revived in 2022, and the parties agreed to reshape its scope: The pipeline will now be adapted to transport hydrogen instead of natural gas. 

Portugal, meanwhile, has been outspoken about the “Iberian energy island” problem – that is, the perception that Spain and Portugal remain insufficiently connected to European energy markets and thus vulnerable during crises.

These vulnerabilities were laid bare after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which forced a Europe-wide scramble for alternative energy sources and accelerated efforts to expand renewables. 

While integration into the EU energy market offers obvious benefits – enhanced stability, lower costs and emergency support during crises – it also exposes national systems to risks beyond their direct control. 

A disruption hundreds of kilometers away can (clearly) turn into a domestic catastrophe. 

In this context, autonomy versus integration is not just a technical argument about grid engineering.

Similarly, rumors immediately emerged that the outage was the result of a cyberattack. 

Spanish and Portuguese intelligence agencies have opened inquiries into whether hostile actors exploited existing vulnerabilities to trigger the crisis. 

Most officials emphasize that the fire was an accident or that the blackout resulted from a “rare atmospheric phenomenon”; they have not entirely ruled out acts of sabotage.

The suspicions aren’t without merit. 

Spain has been a frequent target of cyberattacks, often attributed to state and non-state actors who oppose Madrid’s policies toward Ukraine, North Africa and the broader NATO agenda. 

Spain's National Cybersecurity Institute is exploring the possibility that a cyberattack might have contributed to the blackout. 

This investigation is part of a broader effort to understand the causes of the outage. 

Portugal's National Cybersecurity Center, meanwhile, has said there is no evidence to suggest the outage was due to a cyberattack, but investigations are ongoing. 

If inquiries find any sign of malicious interference, the diplomatic and security fallout could be significant, given Europe’s growing concern over the weaponization of energy.

Digital Risks

Digital management of the energy grid has become a cornerstone of national energy strategy, particularly in countries leading the transition to renewables. 

In Spain and Portugal, where wind and solar constitute a significant (and growing) share of the energy mix, sophisticated digital systems are crucial for monitoring, balancing and redistributing supply in real time. 

Unlike traditional fossil fuel plants, renewable energy sources are inherently variable; they depend on weather conditions that are increasingly hard to predict thanks to climate change. 

Managing this variability requires dynamic stabilization technologies, predictive analytics, automated balancing mechanisms and real-time cross-border energy trading capabilities.

Though environmentally and politically urgent, Europe’s push toward greener energy thus introduces new stresses into an already complex system. 

Networks must not only absorb fluctuating inputs from renewables but also withstand sudden shocks. 

Cross-border vulnerability management becomes critical in this environment.

Spain and Portugal have earned a reputation as leaders in the adoption of renewable energy. 

Spain, for example, regularly sets records for renewable penetration, with as much as 50 percent of its electricity generation coming from wind, solar and hydroelectric sources. 

Likewise, Portugal achieved near-100 percent renewable electricity production on certain days in 2023. 

But the blackout revealed a hard truth: Without resilient, digitally managed and cybersecured grid infrastructure, the mere presence of abundant renewable resources does not guarantee true energy security.

The investigations into the blackout are likely examining whether the adaptation of infrastructure built to meet the demands of greener energy played a role. 

In this way, the incident highlights another truth for other nations accelerating their decarbonization efforts: Grid modernization cannot fall behind renewable energy deployment. 

Put simply, green energy transitions must be paired with a green resilience strategy – one that ensures that the promise of renewables is not undermined by the very vulnerabilities that unchecked complexity and interdependence create.

The blackout has also brought forward challenges posed by climate-induced stresses on infrastructure. 

Portuguese authorities indicate that extreme temperature variations in Spain may have led to a rare atmospheric phenomenon, causing anomalous oscillations in high-voltage power lines and subsequent synchronization failures across the European electricity network. 

Southern Europe is increasingly vulnerable to such extreme weather events due to climate change. 

The European Environment Agency reports a significant rise in the frequency and severity of climate-related natural hazards, including heatwaves, storms and heavy rainfall, over recent decades. 

These events can strain aging power infrastructure.

Climate-induced infrastructure stress has also become a security issue. 

Countries that fail to climate-proof their systems risk domestic instability and diminished strategic leverage in international affairs. 

The blackout shows national security planners would be wise to integrate climate resilience into defense strategies.

The Political Significance

Naturally, politics will play a huge role in how the strategies are hashed out. 

Though the governments’ emergency responses were relatively swift, that’s no comfort to the many citizens who were frustrated by what they saw as insufficient information and coordination. 

Their frustration could have political consequences in both countries.

In Spain, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez convened an emergency Cabinet meeting within hours of the blackout. 

Early government statements downplayed fears of systemic vulnerability. 

Along with ministers responsible for ecological transition, transport and digital transformation, Sanchez also visited the control center of Red Electrica to oversee response efforts firsthand. 

Even though the government committed to deploying all necessary resources to find and fix the problems, opposition parties immediately seized the opportunity to criticize the administration’s energy policies and crisis management.

Meanwhile, the Portuguese government held an extraordinary ministerial meeting and established a task force to monitor the situation. 

Authorities indicated that the blackout might have originated outside Portugal and emphasized their commitment to restoring normalcy quickly. 

However, the leftist opposition groups are demanding a national inquiry into why contingency plans appeared inadequate.

The timing of the blackout is particularly bad for the ruling parties. 

Portugal is set to hold a snap legislative election on May 18 following the government's loss of a confidence vote in March. 

Spain’s next general election is not scheduled until August 2027, but the incident has given opposition parties a gift that will keep on giving. 

Public confidence in government preparedness could erode further if future investigations reveal avoidable negligence or, worse, foreign interference.

Economically, the blackout’s impact is still unclear. 

Early estimates suggest losses in the hundreds of millions of euros. 

Retail, transport, manufacturing and digital services were disrupted. 

Tourism – a critical sector for both countries – suffered immediate blows as airports and hotels struggled to maintain operations. 

Preliminary estimates suggest Spain could experience a loss of approximately 0.5 percent of its quarterly gross domestic product. 

The blackout could also deter future investment if the governments fail to reassure markets.

France, which played a role in both triggering and absorbing the blackout’s effects, will likely face pressure to enhance cross-border energy safeguards. 

Brussels, too, is expected to launch a broader review of EU-wide energy grid protocols. 

For now, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa have simply expressed solidarity with Spain and Portugal. 

They pledged support through the EU's Electricity Coordination Group, aiming to facilitate information sharing and coordinate efforts to restore power.

Spain and Portugal must now accelerate their efforts to secure and modernize their energy systems. 

But the lessons of the blackout will extend far beyond Iberia. 

Amid climate instability, digital threats and geopolitical realignment, energy security can no longer be treated as a technical back-office issue. 

It will become a central front in the struggle to preserve national sovereignty, economic vitality and stability.

More than anything, the blackout has demonstrated once again that energy independence is a myth. 

Interconnected markets and shared infrastructure are such that no country can fully insulate itself from external disruptions. 

True resilience is found not in isolation but in building in redundancies, reinforcing critical systems and maintaining real-time coordination with neighboring countries.

The outage also revealed the structural challenges inherent in green technologies. 

Europe's pivot toward renewable energy, while essential for climate goals, comes with an unavoidable technical reality that renewables are inherently variable. 

Smart grids capable of dynamically balancing supply and demand, robust storage solutions to buffer against fluctuations and hardened cybersecurity systems are, therefore, not optional enhancements; they are fundamental pillars of a functioning energy system.

Perhaps most critically, the events of April 28 bring home the fact that critical infrastructure is a national security issue. 

The intersection of cyber, physical and environmental risks is no longer theoretical. 

Regardless of what caused the blackout, the fact remains that energy grids today are exposed to multiple domains of threat simultaneously, and that power, defense and resilience are no longer separate conversations. 

The blackout over the Iberian Peninsula may have lasted only a few hours, but the alarm it sounded across Europe will echo for much longer.