READYING THE RESISTANCE, AGAIN / PROJECT SYNDICATE

Readying the Resistance, Again

The United States is not a monarchy, but a federal republic. States and cities controlled by Democrats represent half the country, and they can resist Donald Trump’s overreach by using the tools of progressive federalism, many of which were sharpened during his first administration.

Laura Tyson, Lenny Mendonca

BERKELEY – November 5, 2024, was a humbling day for Democrats. 

Not only did Donald Trump regain the presidency, but the Republicans also won the Senate and (narrowly) held on to the House of Representatives. 

If there is any consolation for the Democrats, it is that the election did not give Trump a mandate, despite what he says. 

His 1.5% popular vote margin was the smallest since the nineteenth century. 

Still, with the trifecta of the presidency, the Congress, and the Supreme Court, Trump will be able to pursue the far-right agenda outlined in Project 2025 with very few constraints.

Fortunately, the United States is not a monarchy, but a federal republic. 

That means states can resist Trump’s overreach by using the tools of progressive federalism, many of which were sharpened during his first administration.

While much work remains to be done to understand the Democrats’ poor electoral performance, there is no time to waste on soul-searching. 

In recent weeks, Senate Democrats and President Joe Biden confirmed as many judges as they could and ensured that more than $1 trillion appropriated in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act was transferred to the states for deployment. 

Biden also issued executive orders prohibiting offshore oil drilling, blocking the acquisition of US Steel by a Japanese company, and committing significant federal funding to disaster relief and support for the areas of southern California devastated by fires.

Indeed, much of the federalist resistance over the next two years will come from states like California. 

The week after the election, California Governor Gavin Newsom called for a special session of the legislature to “Trump-proof” the state. 

He then traveled to Washington to lobby for disaster-relief funding, health-care initiatives, and crucial climate and clean-air efforts. 

And his proposed 2025 budget includes $50 million in legal support to challenge the new administration’s policies in the courts.

Newsom has long positioned California as a progressive leader and an alternative to right-wing populism. 

He has moved the state toward a zero-emissions transportation system, enshrined abortion rights in the state constitution, expanded MediCal coverage to undocumented immigrants, increased the minimum wage, and supported the innovation economy through the state’s world-class higher education system. 

His idea of “California Capitalism” – which focuses on the working class and regional programs to promote inclusive, sustainable growth – helped shape some of the most important elements of Bidenomics, including the American Rescue Plan and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

Newsom is not the only one bolstering federalist resistance capabilities. 

State attorneys general will play a very important role in protecting progressive values over the coming years. 

And the Democratic Governors’ Association promises that, “As we brace for the potential for the same lawlessness and extremism that Donald Trump repeatedly promised to bring to the White House again, Americans can look to Democratic governors to continue standing up for fundamental freedoms and our democracy.”

Collectively, America’s blue (Democrat-controlled) states have enormous power. 

The West Coast and New England states, plus New York, New Jersey, and Illinois, all went for Kamala Harris and represent 32% of the US population, 38% of its GDP, and 75% of venture capital investment. 

And if you add major blue metro areas like Dallas, Washington D.C., Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Phoenix, the first two figures come close to 50%.

This blue bloc is a force to be reckoned with. 

Though it will be tough going, Democratic governors will have the US Constitution on their side. 

The Tenth Amendment – which the Supreme Court regards as both a shield and sword to thwart federal encroachment – provides that the “powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.”

In addition to legal resistance, there are also ballot measures. 

While not an option until 2026 in most cases, these can protect citizens’ rights and interests by amending state constitutions. 

When given a direct choice, voters tend to support progressive policies, even in red states. 

We have seen this recently with ballot initiatives on abortion rights, minimum wages, Medicaid expansion, paid family leave, and pro-democracy political reforms. 

The Fairness Project, which advances many of these causes, has won 39 of its 43 ballot measures over the last few cycles.

While state-based resistance will require most of the attention these next two years, those opposed to Trump’s far-right agenda also must start preparing for the next election. 

One promising initiative is the National Popular Vote Compact, which is only 51 electoral votes from being enacted. 

If adopted by enough states, it would circumvent the Electoral College by requiring “state electors to vote for the winner of the nationwide popular vote (instead of who won in that state).”

Such state-level reforms have a long history of driving progress in the US. 

The original Progressive Movement took off at the turn of the twentieth century as a response to the vast changes brought by industrialization. 

Middle- and working-class reformers led the charge against massive monopolies and rampant pollution, worker exploitation, and political corruption.

Over the course of two decades, Progressive-era reformers achieved massive political and institutional changes, introducing ballot initiative and recall processes, direct election of US senators, civil service reform, and new protections for women and workers. 

Trust busting, interstate commerce laws, railroad legislation, food and drug safety, and conservation measures all helped to rein in abuses of corporate power. 

Eventually, reforms that began in Wisconsin and California laid the groundwork for the New Deal, providing a template for state and national legislation to protect the environment, workers, and democracy.

Progressive federalism represents the best chance that we have to resist dangerous democratic backsliding in the US. As Newsom said right after the election, “Federalism is the cornerstone of our democracy. 

It’s the United STATES of America.”

Laura Tyson, a former chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration, is a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and a member of the Board of Advisers at Angeleno Group.

Lenny Mendonca, Senior Partner Emeritus at McKinsey & Company, is a former chief economic and business adviser to Governor Gavin Newsom of California and chair of the California High-Speed Rail Authority.