Europe: The Agony and Ecstasy of US Relations
The solutions to some of the Continent’s most pressing challenges are in Washington’s hands.
By: Antonia Colibasanu
One of the most pressing geopolitical issues Europe faces is its evolving relationship with the United States.
This relationship will be critical as Europe navigates a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by two interrelated dynamics, over which Europe itself has little control: Washington’s stance toward Russia, particularly with regard to the war in Ukraine, and the nature of U.S.-China relations.
Together, these factors will significantly impact European stability, security and autonomy.
To be sure, Europe has no shortage of challenges.
There has been a marked increase in radical and populist political parties – right and left – that have aggravated an already fractured political landscape.
Many of these groups have adopted a more conciliatory stance toward Russia, thus undermining collective efforts to maintain sanctions and to fully support Kyiv.
Domestic criticism over Israel’s actions in Gaza remains, as does the general uncertainty surrounding the new balance of power in the Middle East.
(The associated discontent over northbound migration is also a major source of concern.)
And this is to say nothing of the instability in the European periphery – in the Balkans, in the Caucasus, in Moldova, across the Mediterranean and elsewhere.
In this politically charged environment, Europe faces mounting pressure to reconcile its internal instabilities with its external obligations.
The interplay of rising populism, economic discontent and foreign policy challenges underscores the fragility of European unity.
But the war in Ukraine stands alone in its ability to impact European politics, security and economic affairs.
Yet it is the United States, not Europe itself, that seems to hold the keys to locking the conflict down.
The level of U.S. commitment to Ukraine, then, will be a decisive factor in determining Europe’s strategic direction, especially as a new president takes office with a self-proclaimed mandate to end the war.
Either way, the U.S. will have to deal with Russia.
Russia’s strategic imperative in the conflict, however, is more than a matter of territorial ambition.
Sure, controlling Ukrainian territory achieves certain tactical objectives, but they are secondary to the broader goal of limiting U.S. influence in Europe and expanding Russia's own.
For Moscow, pushing the U.S. out of Europe would be a major geopolitical victory because it would allow Russia to better align the Continent’s security and political order with its interests.
Winning the war in Ukraine would, in theory, contribute to this goal.
The problem is that Russia has not won the war; if anything, it has been significantly weakened by it.
Despite these challenges, Russia has shown a desire to discuss the stalemate directly with Washington.
This is a deliberate strategy to bypass Ukraine and European powers.
By sidelining them, Russia can undermine their agency and position itself as a primary negotiator on European security.
This approach reflects its broader ambition of redefining power relations on the Continent, even as its current position remains compromised by its faltering campaign in Ukraine.
For Europe, this adds another layer of complexity to its strategic calculations.
European leaders must navigate not only the immediate challenges of supporting Ukraine and managing the fallout of the war but also the broader implications of Russia’s long-term objectives.
The outcome of this dynamic – whether through negotiations or continued conflict – will significantly influence the balance of power in Europe and its relationship with both the U.S. and Russia.
Meanwhile, the relationship between the U.S. and China looms large over Europe’s policy landscape.
If tensions between the U.S. and China escalate – whether through economic decoupling, technological rivalry, or intensified security competition in the Indo-Pacific – Europe risks being caught in the geopolitical crossfire.
Intensified U.S.-China tensions would not only strain European economies but also affect Sino-Russian relations and thus the outcome of the Ukraine war.
The prospect is already casting a shadow over much of the Continent.
Beijing’s strategic interest in Europe revolves around preserving its access to the EU’s common market, a critical pillar of its economic ambitions and global influence.
This priority underpins China’s efforts to cultivate bilateral relationships with specific European member states in an effort to undermine EU unity and prevent collective action that might restrict its market access.
By offering economic incentives such as investments and trade deals, China has successfully forged closer ties with countries such as Hungary, Greece and others that are strategically significant, economically, politically or otherwise.
In simple terms, to weaken Europe's cohesion is to weaken its leverage in negotiations.
At the same time, China has expanded its investments in European port infrastructure, including ports in countries that border the EU.
These investments are part of a broader strategy to secure physical access to the European market and establish economic dependencies with peripheral states.
By controlling key nodes in Europe’s supply chain, China can ensure it has uninterrupted access to trade and increase its political leverage over countries that benefit from Chinese investment.
China’s positioning in the Ukraine war reflects this strategic calculus.
By presenting itself as neutral, Beijing avoids alienating the EU.
By maintaining ties with Russia, it hedges its bets while benefiting from Russia’s international isolation.
This delicate approach is driven by the need to avoid secondary sanctions that could harm China’s economy, particularly as it anticipates the possibility of increased U.S. tariffs on its exports.
Beijing’s overriding goal is to prevent a united Western front that could threaten its economic stability.
As U.S.-China tensions escalate, Europe remains a key battleground for influence.
China and Russia both rely on European disunity and fragmentation to advance their strategic objectives, recognizing that a divided Europe is less capable of collective action and more vulnerable to external influence.
Russia exploits internal divisions through energy dependencies, information campaigns and direct political interference.
China employs economic tools such as targeted investments, bilateral trade agreements and infrastructure projects to establish dependencies.
Though their methods differ, they share a common goal: diminishing U.S. influence on the Continent, limiting NATO’s effectiveness and, ideally, reshaping Europe’s political and economic landscape to serve their own needs.
This is why it’s so important to monitor U.S.-European relations going forward.
While the trans-Atlantic partnership remains a cornerstone of European stability, there is increased recognition in Europe of the need to pursue greater self-reliance in areas such as defense, energy security and technological innovation.
The degree to which Europe can do so – while consolidating its position and resisting external attempts to exploit its divisions – will determine whether it emerges as a more unified and independent actor on the global stage.
And how the U.S. responds to these efforts – whether by reinforcing its commitment to European security or recalibrating its approach – will shape the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship and its role in countering the influence of external powers like China and Russia.
In this way, the U.S.-European relationship will become as much a source of strength as it is a point of tension.
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