Words before war
Countering China’s diplomatic coup
China has turned much of the global south against Taiwan. That could be laying the ground for forced unification
IN JUST A few weeks the Trump administration has unleashed a dizzying number of initiatives and controversies abroad, from imposing tariffs and cutting America’s international aid budgets to starting talks with Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine and reimposing “maximum pressure” on Iran.
Yet America’s biggest long-term challenge remains China and, as we report, amid the turmoil of America’s election campaign in 2024 and the disruption of Donald Trump’s first weeks in office, the People’s Republic has been busy strengthening its position.
Barely noticed, China has pulled off a diplomatic coup by turning more of the world against the self-governing island of Taiwan.
Most countries, including Western ones, recognise China rather than Taiwan.
Until recently, most of them also either acknowledged that China claimed sovereignty over Taiwan, advocating a peaceful resolution of the dispute, or took no position on the question.
But over the past 18 months a large number of countries in the global south have signed up to a new diplomatic position.
They now support “all” efforts by China to unify the island with the mainland.
The Economist reckons that 70 countries have now endorsed this harder language.
Such a tweak may seem semantic.
But it matters because Taiwan is already a flash-point and the new language offers China diplomatic protection if it uses force.
The Biden administration made great efforts to renew America’s alliances in Asia, partly to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Even so, the situation remains delicate.
At times Joe Biden appeared to depart from the intricate American position of “strategic ambiguity”.
This is aimed at discouraging China from attacking, but without emboldening Taiwan so much that it declares independence.
Before America’s elections, China held military exercises that simulated a devastating blockade of Taiwan.
Since taking office, Mr Trump has not laid out his policy on Taiwan, though he has threatened to impose tariffs on its chipmaking industry.
His administration includes China hawks, such as Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, and cheerleaders for China, such as Elon Musk.
On February 7th, after talks between Mr Trump and Ishiba Shigeru, the Japanese prime minister, the two used tougher language than usual over Taiwan, saying that they “opposed any attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force or coercion”.
But at points in the past Mr Trump has appeared to belittle Taiwan’s desire to withstand Chinese bullying.
He may yet be open to a deal that sells out Taiwan in return for concessions from China.
A full invasion of the island by China is possible, and Xi Jinping, China’s president, has asked the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to go to war by 2027.
Another option would be a quarantine, or inspection regime, that seeks to cripple Taiwan’s economy while falling short of an act of war.
China’s diplomatic effort appears to be aimed at minimising the censure it would face in either scenario.
By getting much of the world to formally legitimise “all” action taken by China, Mr Xi may hope to make it harder for America to enforce sanctions against it.
Already, the Western embargo of Russia, which lacks UN backing, has proved impossible to enforce fully around the world.
Any attempt to impose similar measures on China in a Taiwan crisis may be even less successful.
Alongside this pre-emptive lawfare, China is also seeking to increase its self-sufficiency in everything from semiconductors to food.
The diplomatic coup over Taiwan is a reminder that, amid these doubts, China is busy making plans.
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