AVIAN INFLUENZA: MILLIONS OF BIRDS HAVE DIED. HOW TO STOP HUMANS DYING TOO / THE ECONOMIST

Avian influenza

Millions of birds have died. How to stop humans dying, too

As isolated human cases of H5N1 emerge, now is the time to prepare

Over the past couple of years the largest outbreak of avian influenza (h5n1) in recorded history has torn across the planet. 

The virus, which is deadly to birds, has devastated wild and domesticated flocks alike. 

Attempts to stop transmission have seen hundreds of millions of birds culled on farms since the strain was first identified in 1996. 

Wild bird deaths are probably in their millions at least. 

The danger is that, as the virus mutates, a bird pandemic becomes a human one. 

Precisely how h5n1 will adapt and spread is impossible to predict. 

But the time to prepare is now.

In the past year the virus has spread in a range of mammals, and it is now rife among dairy cattle in America. 

This has led to several confirmed infections in farm workers. 

So far, these have been mild and isolated. 

However, many more cases in cows and people are thought to be going undetected, because of gaps in surveillance.

For now there are no known cases of the virus being passed from one person to another. 

Nor is there evidence of airborne transmission from dairy cattle to humans. 

But that is no cause for complacency. 

Each infection is a chance for new mutations to arise. 

Scientists have found the virus has acquired many adaptations, including some that may help it spread more easily. 

There is a risk that it could become a highly dangerous airborne human pathogen.

Don’t be flustered, don’t be scared. Be prepared

In many respects the world is better prepared for an influenza pandemic than it was in 2020 when covid-19 began to spread. 

It is not starting from scratch. 

Influenza viruses frequently circulate among humans, providing some degree of immunity. 

Antiviral drugs can help treat those who are infected. 

A limited supply of vaccines already exists; efforts to produce more, and to develop better jabs, are ramping up.

Yet more needs to be done to ensure that governments can react speedily, should signs emerge that the virus is spreading from person to person. 

Countries, including America, need to strengthen their surveillance of infections. 

More targeted testing needs to take place on farms. 

Wastewater sampling, to help detect outbreaks, needs to be expanded. 

Standards of hygiene on farms could be checked and improved. 

Where stocks exist, vaccines should be deployed to the most exposed people, such as farm workers.

Now is also a good time for governments to dust off their pandemic plans and check that their stockpiles of diagnostic kits, vaccines and protective equipment are in good order. 

Countries need to work together, too, to share genetic sequences and outbreak data more readily. 

One big lesson of covid-19 was that transparency and cross-border collaboration can save a lot of lives. 

Secrecy and selfishness tend to have the opposite effect.

Preparing for h5n1 will be helpful even if the virus does not become a threat to humanity. 

Better monitoring of wastewater, for instance, is an investment in monitoring a whole range of infections in human and animal populations. 

Human influenza pandemics have been common for centuries, occurring three times in the 20th century alone. 

Another one at some point is highly likely, perhaps even inevitable. 

Improvements in detection, surveillance and vaccines will help the world cope when it comes.