THE RISKS OF A NEW SPACE RATE / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

The Risks of a New Space Race

Could a potential weapon in space cause a major shakeup to U.S. policy?

By: Ronan Wordsworth

Alarm bells rang out in the United States when Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Michael Turner went public about the threat of Russia deploying a space-based weapon – presumably a nuclear one – and asked President Joe Biden to declassify information about the threat. 

The idea of an imminent Russian attack is far-fetched, but the due diligence about long-term threats isn’t without merit. 

For decades, the U.S. has commanded the geopolitical aspects of outer space because it has by far the most developed network of satellites, essential for a multitude of military applications including surveillance, communications, targeting, early warning systems and detailed intelligence gathering. 

This is to say nothing of the role its satellites play in the commercial sector, covering bank transactions, GPS systems, communications, the internet and weather monitoring. 

And though these satellites have been crucial for Washington’s military supremacy, they are inherently vulnerable to destruction.

The Outer Space Treaty of 1967, which was adopted as the space race was gaining speed, banned the use of weapons of mass destruction in space, which would pose an existential threat to any nation. 

A space-based weapon able to destroy satellites and inflict large-scale damage on the territory of their owners would fundamentally alter geopolitical balances of power. 

It could, for example, negate America’s existing technological advantages by disabling reconnaissance, targeting systems and communications, and bring its economy to its knees. 

This is why there was such a strong reaction from Washington following the announcement that U.S. intelligence believed Russia was developing such a weapon.

What that weapon could be is unclear. 

Space weapons could largely be divided into three categories – Earth-to-space weapons, space-to-Earth weapons and space-to-space weapons. 

It is widely understood that though technically feasible, no country has risked either the condemnation or the investment to deploy the latter two types of space-based weapons.

So far, the systems that have been developed and tested have all been Earth-based direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons. 

China, India and Russia have all demonstrated their capabilities with these systems by hitting their own satellites in orbit. 

The tests attracted their share of criticism, not least because they left debris that will remain in orbit for decades. 

Each debris cloud poses substantial risks to other satellites and potential future space missions. 

Perhaps the biggest concern is the possibility of a chain reaction: If debris hits one satellite, it will create more debris, increasing the likelihood of future collisions to a point where bands of orbital space would be unusable for decades. 

Following Russia’s test in 2021, the U.S. signed a self-imposed ASAT test ban, and 155 members of the United Nations adopted a similar measure. 

(Russia, India and China did not.)

According to reports, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the development of a new “space weapon” capable of eliminating multiple satellites at once after growing frustrated with the level of resistance his forces were encountering in Ukraine. 

Using intelligence and targeting information collected from U.S. and British networks of orbital satellites, Kyiv has frequently anticipated Russian assaults and has struck Russian assets well behind the frontline. 

Moscow already has dual-use systems in orbit that could disrupt U.S. and British satellites, including jamming devices, directional lasers and kinetic systems for debris clearing. 

However, none of these can inflict sudden, wide-scale damage like a nuclear weapon can.

Since the House Intelligence chair sounded the alarm about the potential weapon, U.S. administration officials have backed up the intelligence while noting that the threat remains theoretical. 

Still, many U.S. government and military officials believe the U.S. space program is not prepared for such a threat. 

If Russia or another hostile state managed to put a nuclear ASAT weapon in space, it could threaten U.S. plans to shift from large, single-purpose satellites toward clouds of smaller, cheaper satellites that can act in unison. 

Washington’s plans are intended to better protect its satellite network from attack while capitalizing on the recent dramatic fall in launch costs, but a space-based nuclear weapon would revolutionize space warfare. 

In addition, the proliferation of objects in low-Earth orbit creates the risk that a significant attack using ASAT weapons could produce an almost impenetrable field of debris around the planet. 

In one worst-case scenario, a state in possession of a space-to-space weapon of mass destruction could annihilate its adversaries’ satellites and cement itself as the dominant military actor in space for generations.

Therefore, Washington’s first objective is to deter Moscow from deploying such a weapon in the first place, using diplomatic and military pressure. 

The U.S. will argue for the preservation of existing norms that have prevented any state from deploying nuclear weapons outside of Earth’s atmosphere. 

If this fails, the U.S. would be forced to decide whether to develop its own space-based nuclear weapon, which would sound the starting gun on a nuclear arms race in space.

The U.S. and its allies hoped that self-imposed bans on ASAT weapons testing would pressure other countries to follow suit and limit the weaponization of space. 

However, Russia and China have already demonstrated their ASAT capabilities, and they will be loath to give them up. 

Whether Russia or another state will go a step further and develop a nuclear ASAT capability is a different question, but the existing international framework based on the Outer Space Treaty looks more fragile than ever. 

This will force the U.S. to rethink whether safety in numbers is the optimal strategy to maintain its advantage in space, which translates into its military dominance on Earth.