Bismarck, Truss and why timing is everything in politics
‘Bad timing is not a minor mistake. It is a fundamental error of judgment. In a political leader, it is unpardonable’
Robert Shrimsley
© Lucas VarelaThe great statesman, observed Bismarck, waits until he hears “the steps of God sounding through events, then leaps up and grabs the hem of his garment”.
Liz Truss, it probably does not need saying, is no Bismarck.
In her brief and disastrous premiership, she got fed up of waiting for the footsteps of a slacking God and decided it would be best to go on ahead and wait for the Almighty to catch up.
Or maybe she thought she had heard his footsteps, political leaders generally being convinced of their own sense of destiny.
Whichever it was, it is safe to say the moment was missed.
When the Almighty’s hem was located (skulking in the gilt markets), the PM was not attached.
And yet, in the battle of Bismarck vs Truss, the former Tory leader is still backing herself.
In the latest efforts to rewrite the history of her premiership, she explained that the real, and essentially only, crime in her economic strategy (which sank the currency and roiled the gilt markets) was that she had moved too quickly.
Her key message is still that there was nothing wrong with her ideas.
Yes, it went a bit whoopsy, but her low-law, low-regulation and “hang on, we’ll get to it” expenditure cuts model was the right plan.
She just pursued it too quickly.
In a non-apology apology, she observed: “Some people said we were in too much of a rush.
And it is certainly true that I didn’t just try to fatten the pig on market day; I tried to rear the pig and slaughter it as well.
I confess to that.”
Inevitably, then comes the “but”.
“I went into politics to get things done, not to do public relations.”
Since her ousting, Truss has pursued this line as if it is some kind of mitigation.
I wasn’t wrong, it’s just that I moved too fast.
Her crime was impatience — which is not really a crime either since she is in politics to “get things done”.
Others will debate the “not wrong” part, but in what other world is messing up the timing regarded as a serious defence?
Bad timing is not a minor mistake.
It is a fundamental error of judgment.
In a political leader, it is unpardonable.
Just imagine some alternative contexts: “My plan to sail the Channel was sound.
My only mistake was attempting the crossing before I fixed the holes in the boat.
My mistake was moving too fast.”
No, dummy, your mistake was not moving too fast.
Your mistake was divorcing your idea from the practicalities.
Your mistake was thinking that moving fast might get you to the other side before the boat sank.
Or perhaps: “My plan to beat queues at passport control by getting off the aircraft first was sound.
It’s just that I should have waited till we landed. I moved too quickly.”
In business, bad timing can be as disastrous as a bad idea.
Many will remember the first dotcom bubble.
In many cases, businesses went wrong not because they did not foresee the future but because they did not understand how long it would take for that future to arrive.
This was particularly true in the media.
Visionary execs predicted smartphones, streaming and broadcast opportunities.
And they were prescient.
But what they didn’t factor in was how far off decent broadband, high-end mobiles and so on, were.
So vast amounts of money was wasted.
Moving too quickly was an expensive mistake.
Bad timing is another way of saying that you have misread the circumstances.
By minimising the other errors and playing up her speed, Truss is evading the real point.
What she is actually saying is that her plan was perfect until it collided with reality.
Even those minded to approve of Truss’s general philosophy need to recognise that political ideas cannot exist in a vacuum.
They still need to be applied to the realities of the moment.
What seems like a good idea in benign conditions is a bad plan in others.
We often talk of great leaders making the weather but, as Bismarck understood, what they really do is anticipate it.
Moving too fast can be as catastrophic as moving in the wrong direction.
It is not a forgivable frailty.
In the battle of statesmanship, it’s best to stick with Bismarck.
In politics, as in so many other spheres, timing is everything.
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