UKRAINE´S DAM COLLAPSE CHANGES THE LANDSCAPE AND THE WAR / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

Ukraine’s Dam Collapse Changes the Landscape and the War

The full extent of the damage will not be clear for many weeks. 

By: Antonia Colibasanu

The long-feared destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam became a reality on Tuesday, flooding towns and villages downstream in southern Ukraine and forcing hasty evacuations. 

Built in 1956 as part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, the dam created an 18 billion-cubic-meter reservoir that provided critical water supplies for the entire Crimean Peninsula as well as the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe. 

Both Russia, which occupies Crimea and the nuclear plant, and Ukraine have accused each other of destroying the dam. 

Either way, the event has important tactical and strategic implications, and it highlights the significance of the Dnieper River as a frontline in the war.

Consequences for Ukraine’s Offensive

The Dnieper begins in Russia and flows through Belarus before entering Ukraine, where until the war it served as a major commercial corridor and route to the Black Sea. 

Since Russia’s invasion, it has mostly served as an obstacle. 

Russian forces attacking from Crimea crossed the Dnieper early in the war and occupied the Kherson region, where the river forms a large delta. 

For almost the next nine months, the Russian army was stationed on both sides of the river in Kherson.

 

In November 2022, Ukraine liberated the urban western bank of Kherson and pushed the Russians across the Dnieper. 

In the process, the Antonivka road bridge and railway bridge were destroyed, severely limiting large troop movements across the river in the area and making it practically impossible for Russian forces to continue along the M14 highway to Odesa. 

Both sides mined their banks of the Dnieper over the ensuing months.

 

It is not hard to see why the Dnieper is so important, especially for the campaign in southern Ukraine. 

Russian offensive goals aside, Crimea is only about 80 kilometers (50 miles) away and looks potentially vulnerable. 

The stretch of the eastern bank that Russia holds in Kherson is not far from the mouth of the Dnieper, where the river narrows. 

To defend their position, Russian forces cut down trees, stationed snipers in houses along the river and established trenches and other fortifications.

Since the bursting of the Nova Kakhovka dam, many of those Russian fortifications are or will soon be under water. 

Ukrainian positions on the west bank are threatened as well, but not nearly to the same extent due to the higher elevation on their side. 

However, Russian mass evacuations in the run-up to Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive meant that few were present at the time of the incident. 

In addition, Crimea relied on the Kakhovka reservoir for potable water, but its supplies will dwindle now that the North Crimean Canal is no longer usable. 

On the positive side for Moscow, the deluge will significantly hamper any Ukrainian advance toward Crimea by land. 

It also greatly shortens Russian lines in one of its weaker defensive positions.

The military advantage of destroying the dam, according to Russian military bloggers, is that it makes any Ukrainian attempt to cross the Dnieper and march east much more difficult. 

Indeed, Western military sources say the Russians are "almost certainly" to blame, considering that a breach of this magnitude would require the pre-positioning of explosives and that the Russians have had control of the dam since the beginning of the war. 

However, blowing up the dam would also indicate Russian desperation. 

It would imply that Moscow lacks the capability to move its soldiers westward to reclaim the rest of Kherson.

Nuclear and Ecological Disaster

The dam’s destruction also creates additional problems for Kyiv. The country was already running low on electricity before it lost the Kakhovka hydroelectric station. 

In addition, the reservoir provided cooling water for the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. 

Without enough water, the plant could suffer a meltdown. 

The facility’s Ukrainian operating company anticipates that the reservoir should provide enough water for now, but water levels are dropping by about 5 centimeters (2 inches) per hour, according to the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. 

In the early morning, it was at approximately 16.4 meters. 

Below 12.7 meters it becomes impossible to pump into the plant’s cooling circuits, giving operators just days to find a solution. 

The IAEA chief said that there was no immediate risk but that it was essential that a cooling basin remain intact to provide enough water to cool the idled reactors. 

In the event of a meltdown, radioactive material could travel several hundred miles – well beyond Ukraine – depending on the material and the weather.

Aside from nuclear risks, the dam explosion will have other lasting effects for Ukraine. 

The Kakhovka reservoir supplied an enormous irrigation system that supported Ukrainian industrial and agricultural production. 

Before the war, about 80 percent of Ukraine’s production of vegetables and fruits relied on this irrigation network. 

Rebuilding this system could take decades and add incredible sums to Kyiv’s already daunting reconstruction bill.

Last but not least, wildlife around the Dnieper River will be devastated by the disruption of their sanctuary. 

According to Ukraine’s presidential office, the destruction of the dam caused 150 metric tons of oil to leak from the dam mechanism, and another 300 metric tons could escape. 

A total dam failure would wash away much of the river’s eastern bank, according to the Ukraine War Environmental Consequences Work Group, an association of activists and professionals documenting the war's environmental effects. 

It is also unknown what other contaminants may be in the floodwaters. 

The picture should become clearer over the next five to seven days, when the water level is expected to start dropping. 

The dam's destruction is changing the military geography in southern Ukraine. 

But its fallout will be even broader, posing dire prospects for Ukraine's socio-economic recovery in the long term, given the importance of the flooded area for the country’s agricultural production.