A PROPAGANDA WAR IN LATIN AMERICA / GEOPOLITICAL FUTURES

A Propaganda War in Latin America

U.S. rivals are frustrating its strategy through social media disinformation.

By: Allison Fedirka

As recession looms, the Ukraine war continues without resolution, and China tries to open up after months of lockdowns, Latin America has uncharacteristically made headlines lately. 

Last month in Peru, the legislature removed its president from office. 

Later in Bolivia, opposition protests shut down major transit routes in Santa Cruz province, which accounts for nearly a third of the country’s area. 

More recently, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro stormed and vandalized several government buildings in Brasilia.

In a region where political unrest rarely affects the world at large, the latest bouts of instability are more consequential: Discontent driven by political anxieties is a ripe environment for U.S. adversaries to use propaganda and social media campaigns to undermine Washington’s efforts to bring these areas more firmly under its control.

Indeed, many expect social unrest to intensify in 2023. 

Lags in economic recovery and rising costs of living have given rise to broad, intense and well-populated protests even by the standards of Latin America, where protesting is all but a national pastime. 

Nearly a third of the region lives in poverty, and impoverished households now rely more on social assistance and less on labor income than they did before the pandemic. 

Labor recovery remains slow, characterized by an increase in informal jobs. 

Inflation has already reduced household purchasing power, with private consumption slowing in the second half of 2022. 

The region’s economic growth is expected to slow from 3.7 percent last year to a mere 1.3 percent this year, according to estimates from the U.N. Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean.

 

The region’s economies, governments and citizens are ill-equipped to face another year of economic hardship. 

Latin American governments are no longer in pandemic-induced crisis mode, and their populations are now holding them accountable for the aftermath. 

This is all the more worrisome as governments remain constrained over the amount of fiscal spending they do to solve their economic woes and grapple with high debt, especially since there is notable risk of further currency depreciation. 

A volatile global economy has made governments more risk-averse and has slowed capital inflows to the region. 

The call for a change in political office and leadership is increasingly more commonplace.

This kind of environment plays to the strengths of Russia and China – namely, social media propaganda. 

Both use Latin America’s proximity to the United States to create problems in Washington. 

Until recently, both engaged on the economic front to gain more influence in the region. 

Russia targeted strategic industries like energy, while China used financing and mergers and acquisitions to occupy roles in important infrastructure and natural resource projects. 

Both, however, now face major economic constraints that force them to use other tools. 

Social media propaganda – a lower-cost option that still gives Russia and China reach into the region despite the long physical distances – is the obvious choice. 

In addition to having world-renowned expertise in the field, they already have established hubs in the region, most notably in Venezuela, which has sought surveillance equipment and capabilities from China and Russia in an effort to monitor and control the domestic population. 

Unsurprisingly, the groundwork for their respective campaigns has already been laid.

Latin America’s social instability makes it vulnerable to such propaganda. 

Citizens in the region are more online than the norm; 75 percent have internet access, 10 percentage points above the global average. 

About 85 percent of Latin American internet users get their news online, and of those almost 70 percent read news via social media. 

Nearly half of internet users in the region go on to share this news with others. 

The absence of oversight and regulation makes social media the ideal entry point for U.S. rivals looking to disseminate anti-U.S. propaganda and exacerbate instability.

 

This is a challenge for Washington, which after years of neglect recently renewed efforts to grow and assert its influence in the Western Hemisphere. 

A key element of the U.S. strategy in Latin America is to encourage private investment, but unrest and uncertainty threaten that agenda. 

Without investment, the region’s economic recovery will sputter, and informal and illicit enterprises will grow in attractiveness. 

This, in turn, challenges U.S. efforts to combat organized crime in the region.

Finally, Washington is not well-equipped to counter anti-U.S. propaganda. 

Latin America has not forgotten the United States’ history of intervention, its support for unpopular regimes and its economic model – which it imposed on the region, creating significant hardship. 

U.S. efforts to rehabilitate its reputation will have to overcome anti-American social media campaigns. 

The U.S. can monitor social media for propaganda, but it lacks the tools to control social media posts, especially abroad. 

Just last year, during the Colombian presidential election, Washington warned that Moscow was using social media to boost Gustavo Petro, who won.

Moscow and Beijing cannot compete directly with the U.S. for influence in Latin America. 

They can, however, use their expertise in online disinformation to foster unrest and anti-Americanism. 

This will make it difficult for the U.S. to achieve its objectives and improve its standing in the region, and will benefit Russia and China in the short term.