IS IT THE END OF THE WAR ON DRUGS IN LATIN AMERICA? / THE ECONOMIST

Is it the end of the war on drugs in Latin America?

The prohibition model espoused by the United States looks weaker than ever

Former rebel of the dissolved Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), Eiber Andrade, collects coca leaves in Catatumbo, Norte de Santander Department, Colombia, taken on August 20, 2022. - The Catatumbo region is home to the largest area of illegal coca leaf crops used to make cocaine in the world, making it a hub for organized crime. (Photo by Raul ARBOLEDA / AFP) (Photo by RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP via Getty Images)

The relationship between Latin America and the superpower to the north has never been easy. 

“Latin America doesn’t matter,” said Richard Nixon in 1971, the year he launched the “war on drugs”. 

“People don’t give one damn about Latin America now.” 

In 2023, bilateral tensions will mount over perennial questions of security and migration, but especially over drugs policy. 

How Latin America’s new leftist leaders deal with these issues will shape their relationship with the United States for years to come.

The erosion of democracy in the region is a long-standing problem for the United States, helping fuel a migration crisis at its southern border. 

Increasing numbers of people are fleeing from the “northern triangle” countries (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) as well as from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. 

More than 2m migrants were detained at America’s southern border in the first nine months of 2022, a third more than in 2021.

Even a small-scale experiment in decriminalising cocaine production in Colombia would have huge global implications

But the shifting tides of Latin American politics also complicate matters. 

With Pedro Castillo as Peru’s president and Gabriel Boric in charge in Chile, the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil is the latest example of how the region has lately been swinging back to the left. 

Lula is expected to want to cement “south-south” ties, particularly with China. 

This is likely to irk Western leaders, not least President Joe Biden. 

Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s populist president from 2018 to 2022, fanned anti-China sentiment, though his rhetoric was not always matched on the ground (the value of trade between Brazil and China grew to $135bn, a record, in 2021).

In Colombia, meanwhile, the election of Gustavo Petro, the first leftist to be president, provides another potential point of tension. 

He has spoken out against what he calls the “irrational” war on drugs. 

His plans for drugs policy include negotiating with gangs, ensuring poor farmers who plant coca are not penalised, and that consumption of cocaine can take place in regulated settings for medical use (the drug is already decriminalised for personal use, though few Colombians consume it).

Others have proposed going further. 

Felipe Tascón, a member of Mr Petro’s campaign team who was tipped to be his “drugs tsar”, has mentioned the possibility of fully legalising cocaine. 

Nestor Ozuna, the justice minister, has argued that it must be regulated, but ruled out legalisation. 

Such ideas are new: it was only in 2020 that Iván Marulanda, a liberal senator, proposed a bill that would allow the Colombian state to buy up all the coca in the country at market prices. 

Now such ideas are gaining traction.

Even a small experiment in decriminalising cocaine production in Colombia would have huge implications. 

The country produces 60% of the world’s supply of the drug. 

North America is the largest consumer: according to the un’s Office on Drugs and Crime, 2% of North Americans took it in 2020.

This means the “prohibition model” espoused by the United States for decades has never looked weaker, says Jeremy McDermott of InSight Crime, an investigative outfit: “Not only has Washington lost its most important ally in its counter-narcotics struggle in Colombia, but also Mexico, Venezuela and Chile.” 

The Mexican government has made it very hard for America’s Drug Enforcement Administration to operate, says a former American official. 

“Brazil is not particularly on board. 

Only Panama remains firmly in the United States’s camp,” says Mr McDermott. 

Five decades after Nixon launched his war, Latin America is listening less than ever.