There is no path back for low-tax liberal Conservatism
Suella Braverman’s resignation shows the Tories can still fall further
Robert Shrimsley
© Ellie Foreman-PeckThese are tantalising times for Cameron Conservatives, that happy breed of metropolitan liberal Tories who rose with the former prime minister and were so thoroughly routed in the Brexit battles of the past few years.
The unhappy collision of Trussonomics with economic reality seems to offer a return to fiscally prudent, moderate Toryism, personified by the appointment of Jeremy Hunt as chancellor and, effectively, leader.
Hunt, who served in every Cameron cabinet, has not only promised to be guided by the principles of “compassionate conservatism” as he seeks to balance the books, he has also installed Rupert Harrison, the key aide of former chancellor George Osborne, as one of a small council of economic advisers.
Another ex-Cameron minister, Grant Shapps, has been made home secretary in place of Suella Braverman, the hardline Brexiter and culture warrior, who officially left office over a security breach but also amid conflict over her anti-immigration stance.
As Tories debate how and when to defenestrate another leader, all the mooted contenders — Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak and Hunt himself — are seen as being from the party mainstream.
Liz Truss’s spectacular implosion has seemingly sated the appetite for those from the ideological edge.
But those who hanker for the days of globalist, liberal realists should temper their excitement.
There is no such thing as Brexity Cameronism.
Today’s moderate Tories are very different from those of 2010, a point illustrated by the fact that Sunak, an early Brexiter and Thatcherite, is now often described as being on the party’s left.
As important, the economic and social circumstances which delivered that metropolitan liberal Conservatism are gone.
Lower taxes are, for now, a pipe dream.
The high tide of globalisation has passed, harsh geopolitics has intruded.
Brexiters and China hawks have erected trade barriers to markets that were strenuously courted in the “follow the money” Cameron era.
Hunt is right to prioritise regaining financial credibility, but until costly Brexit purism is abandoned there will remain a hole in Tory economic strategy.
Even business tax cuts will not deliver inward investment if the rest of the world sees you as a bad bet.
The grown-ups may be back but Brexit has robbed the country of a grown-up economic policy.
In 2010 Cameron used introducing gay marriage to signal that his party felt at ease with modern Britain.
Today such battlegrounds are trans rights, immigration and cancel culture: even mainstream Conservatives use them to show they side with those who think progressive values have gone too far.
The base of people minded to vote Conservative has shifted.
The Brexit coalition assembled by Boris Johnson is now the only plausible path to a majority, or a non-catastrophic defeat in the near future.
Politics professor Tim Bale has argued persuasively that the ground has shifted, creating a values gap between Tory MPs, who veer towards both political and economic liberalism, and their voters, who are more socially conservative and interventionist.
They want governments to protect them from social evils.
Tories also fear leaving a space on the hard right for a traditionalist, Faragist party on issues like immigration and so-called culture wars.
This leaves only two viable paths and, given the demands of its voters for decent public services plus the Brexit cost to the British economy, neither leads to a meaningfully low-tax future.
The first points towards rebuilding the Johnson coalition but without him or his cakeist economics; the other is a retreat into nativist social conservatism.
The first and more probable path, if Truss falls, is a more mainstream, fiscally responsible leader, a Brexit pragmatist.
Where possible, financial pain would be pushed up the income scale and social conservatism answered with a hard line on law and order — but immigration crackdowns will be limited to illegal entrants.
This path offers a slim chance of recovery in the polls but, given looming cuts, more realistically can only help pare back the scale of defeat.
However, even that requires so far unseen discipline from Tory MPs.
The second path is more likely after a bad election loss.
There is a pattern of behaviour among newly defeated political parties which sees a retreat to a purist base.
Only after several losses will they take the distasteful step of compromising with the electorate.
In this scenario the Tory party would pledge to throttle back immigration, even at the expense of growth, and promise to leave the European Convention on Human Rights.
There would be Brexit purism, sharp dividing lines on social attitudes and illegal refugees, and a defence of the British empire.
Tax cuts would again be promised, funded by supposedly painless spending cuts and imaginary wars on Whitehall waste.
That approach was personified by Braverman who talked of dreaming about deporting illegal immigrants and denounced environmental protesters as the “tofu-eating wokerati”.
It is no accident that she had been steadily climbing the rankings in the ConservativeHome members poll which foretold the success of Liz Truss.
Her views have a solid constituency in the party and her resignation letter, stressing especially the failure to reduce immigration, makes clear her wing will fight for them.
Whatever the precise details of her departure, Braverman’s letter screams of someone burnishing their credentials for a future contest.
This path is a long-term threat to Conservatives.
Higher education and the death of older voters are pushing the country in the other direction.
For all his populism, Johnson knew he needed some liberal Tory voters and was careful not to fall too far down the reactionary rabbit hole.
So Tories have two available futures, but one leads to a long exile.
The past few days suggest the party steering away from that second path but the Truss experiment has shown us to be wary of calling the bottom of a political market.
There is always another rung down.
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