Pinning hopes on positive polls puts party in danger of ignoring the lessons of 2016
Gideon Rachman
© James Ferguson/FT
There was an undercurrent of fear at last week’s Democratic convention. But the anxiety gnawing at the party was not focused on worries that Republican incumbent Donald Trump would actually win the US presidential election. It was that the president would steal it — by sabotaging the vote or refusing to concede defeat. The comedian, Sarah Cooper, summed up the prevailing view when she said “Donald Trump knows he can’t win fair and square.”
The president has, after all, refused to commit to accepting the results of the election. But, by focusing on the danger of a stolen vote, the Democrats are in danger of underplaying a more conventional risk — that Mr Trump could win without cheating.
It is true that polls show Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, well ahead of Mr Trump and have done for months. Those who point out that the polls also predicted victory for Hillary Clinton in 2016 are reminded that Mr Biden’s current average lead of around 9 percentage points is much larger than that held by Mrs Clinton.
But leads like the one that Mr Biden currently enjoys have been overcome before. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis was 17 points ahead after his party’s convention but lost in November. The electoral college system also structurally favours Republicans, meaning that Mr Biden may need to be four points ahead in the national tally to be sure of victory.
The betting markets are certainly not discounting the possibility of a Trump victory. Recent odds have put the president’s chances of re-election at between 36 and 43 per cent
Even some of the polls that show Mr Biden well ahead contain details that suggest there may be hidden support for the president. One survey taken in mid-August showed Mr Biden seven points ahead. But when voters were asked who they thought their neighbours were supporting, Mr Trump was ahead by five points.
This may point to the existence of a group of “shy” Trump supporters, who will not admit their allegiance to pollsters. Another survey, taken in July, showed that 62 per cent of Americans agree that “the political climate these days prevents me from saying things I believe”. Among Republicans, the figure was 77 per cent.
A Monmouth poll taken in July in Pennsylvania — a key battleground state — showed a 13-point lead for Mr Biden. But when voters were asked who they thought would win the state, they opted narrowly for Mr Trump by 46-45. And 57 per cent of those polled believed that there were “secret voters” in their community who would vote for Mr Trump.
Some experienced Democratic politicians in swing states are nervous. Debbie Dingell, a Michigan congresswoman told The Atlantic in July that a poll that showed Mr Biden ahead by 16 points in Michigan was “bullshit”. As Ms Dingell pointed out, the Michigan polls also predicted victory for Mrs Clinton in 2016. In the event, Mr Trump won narrowly — the first time a Republican had carried the state since 1988.
The congresswoman also pointed to the number of “Blue Lives Matter” signs she had seen in her district — expressing support for the police against the Black Lives Matter movement. She summed up her concerns about voter sentiment, by quoting a viral social media post that complained — “I used to think I was pretty much just a regular person. But I was born white into a two-parent household, which now labels me as privileged, racist, and responsible for slavery.”
Even quoting a passage like that could be controversial in Democratic party circles — since some supporters might see it as giving credence and tacit support to racist sentiment. The Democrats initially reacted to defeat in 2016 with determination to engage with the woes of the white working-class. But that has been displaced by outrage about the president’s conduct — and a passionate focus on racial injustice. The book Hillbilly Elegy has been replaced on bedside reading tables by White Fragility.
That, potentially, presents Mr Trump with an opportunity. His electoral strategy is aimed precisely at whipping up the anger and resentment of white voters. He will welcome an election that focuses on issues of race.
Even so, Mr Trump faces formidable obstacles — many of his own creation. The coronavirus pandemic and America’s high death rate have cruelly exposed his managerial incompetence. It has also highlighted the importance of issues that play well for Democrats, such as healthcare and paid leave.
The president had been planning to run on a strong economy — but Covid-19 has put paid to that. Former Trump aides, such as ex-national security adviser John Bolton, have denounced him. Steve Bannon, who ran the president’s 2016 campaign, has just been charged with fraud. (He has pleaded not guilty.)
Many Democrats struggle to understand how anybody could vote for Mr Trump — they assume it must be racism or mental incapacity. But it is that very inability to summon up much sympathy or comprehension for people who are considering voting for the president that is the Democrats’ biggest potential weakness.
The Trump campaign will do its best to convince their core voters that they remain, in the words of Mrs Clinton, the “deplorables” — a downtrodden and despised group. That strategy of resentment has worked before. It gives Mr Trump a chance of winning again.
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