Summary
The United States has been on a crusade to block Chinese tech firms out of the development of 5G networks. Its allies, big and small, are reluctant to fall in line as they weigh the potential political and military costs of bucking Washington’s demands against the dollars-and-cents cost of excluding tech companies like Huawei. Ultimately, few countries are likely to adopt a blanket ban on Chinese tech. But it may not matter if the U.S. proves willing and capable of crippling Chinese tech firms unilaterally.
For much of the past half a decade, the U.S. has warned that trouble awaits countries that build their fifth-generation, or 5G, mobile networks with Chinese technology. Fearing that the proliferation of Chinese telecommunications infrastructure would give Beijing unprecedented cyberespionage and network sabotage capabilities, the Trump administration has since tightened the noose, moving gradually to ban Chinese software and equipment – and even foreign tech made or designed in China – from U.S. networks. It wants friends and allies across the globe, on whose telecommunications networks the U.S. military relies, to follow suit. Using Chinese tech was always risky, but the U.S. has threatened to raise the stakes, saying countries that use it could face a future without U.S. military and intelligence cooperation.
This kind of absolutist approach by the U.S. speaks both to just how alarmed it is by China’s creeping telecommunications dominance and how little credence it gives to claims that such threats are manageable. Yet, widespread reluctance to comply with U.S. pressure has raised the question of whether the U.S. is really willing to walk away from the multilateral network of friends and allies it has been cultivating since World War II, with profound potential implications for the global system. But the U.S. won’t have to make this call any time soon. It’s not yet settled whether a blanket ban on Chinese 5G-related tech is really necessary. And U.S. moves to take matters into its own hands and stop Huawei’s rise may well put the whole issue to rest.
Why Other Countries Aren’t Falling in Line
Thus far, the U.S. campaign has found at best mixed success. Only Australia and, to a lesser extent, New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam have come anywhere close to a blanket ban on Chinese telecommunications tech. Elsewhere, responses have ranged generally from “We’re exploring other options, but don’t force us to take an overtly anti-China position” (see: Singapore, South Korea) to “Partial restrictions and careful vetting will be sufficient” (Europe) to “We’ll use as much Huawei tech as we darn well please, so stop nagging us about it” (Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad). Skeptics include the U.K. and Canada – fellow members of the crucial Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network (none of whom, inexplicably, are home to a major Huawei competitor); countries hosting or pursuing major U.S. military bases like Germany, South Korea and Poland; and nominal allies familiar with Chinese aggression like the Philippines. Even the African Union, whose Huawei-wired headquarters reportedly leaked a torrent of data to servers in China every night for five years, recently signed a new cooperation agreement with Huawei.
This reluctance is rooted, above all, in matters of dollars and cents. The physical requirements of 5G make rollouts breathtakingly expensive. It’s not just about upgrading existing cell towers. 5G will operate primarily on high frequency spectrum, which will unleash blistering data processing speeds with exponentially higher traffic capacity, but only at very short range. To ensure network stability and minimize latency, then, it will require a vast and dense network of base stations and antennas, plus millions of miles of new fiber-optic cable. Little of what 5G promises – driverless cars, automation, artificial intelligence, “smart cities,” “the internet of things” and so forth – can be realized without major capital expenditures.
Huawei and ZTE can make the leap to 5G less painful. Just three competitors – Finland’s Nokia, Sweden’s Ericsson and South Korea’s Samsung – are currently capable of delivering a similarly comprehensive suite of network equipment. (The United States’ Cisco and other smaller players will be competitive in narrow segments of 5G systems.) None have Huawei’s ability to achieve economies of scale and its levels of state backing, so it can often undercut its rivals by 20-30 percent. (It’s not a matter of sacrificing quality, either; some Huawei tech is considered the best in the business.) Moreover, the initial phases of 5G rollouts in all but a few countries will be built largely on existing 4G infrastructure – which, in many countries, is already built with Huawei tech. Ripping out all the existing Huawei equipment before upgrading would make the process even more expensive. Vodafone UK, for example, says it would need to replace some 6,000 base stations, costing hundreds of millions of pounds. It would also add costly delays, putting domestic industries behind the curve in developing profitable 5G applications. Germany’s Deutsche Telekom, the largest telecommunications operator in Europe, said a blanket ban on Huawei would set back its 5G roll outs by at least two years.
Poorer and less densely populated countries will benefit the most from Huawei's cost advantages, of course, but even highly urbanized countries – those best-equipped to develop and reap the economic benefits of 5G applications, and with perhaps the most to lose from delays – aren’t immune. The race to roll out 5G networks is not a winner-take-all contest, despite how it is often portrayed. Still, there are certainly first-mover advantages in the development of new 5G applications, influence over international standards and securing new patents. Even outside the tech world, a firm in any sector – from heavy industry to manufacturing to transportation to healthcare – primed to harness 5G’s power could reap cost and quality advantages over foreign competitors effectively stuck in what might feel like the digital stone age. Add to this the costs associated with potential Chinese economic retaliation and other forms of coercion, and it’s easy to understand why countries insist on exploring protective measures before deciding whether to assume the costs of an all-out ban.
Is a Blanket Ban Really Necessary?
Skeptical governments have relied on four main arguments to explain their reluctance to fully ban Chinese telecommunications firms. Two are falling on deaf ears; two may ultimately gain traction.
The first is that the U.S. has not provided any evidence that Huawei has installed “back doors” into its existing overseas networks or knowingly facilitated state-sponsored cyberespionage. (The U.K.’s Huawei Cyber Security Centre Oversight Board did find defects in Huawei source code and concluded that the firm failed to address security issues in the past, but this doesn’t prove that the company has acted with malicious intent.) Absent evidence, they say, the U.S. is acting primarily on suspicion rooted in its own strategic and trade-related tensions with China – ones that other countries may not share. If the U.S. was really worried about cybersecurity, they say, it wouldn’t have abandoned an Obama-era push to include cybersecurity measures in international 5G technical standards. Nor would the Trump administration be so quick to ease pressure on Huawei and ZTE in the interest of reaching a trade deal with China.
The second argument is that, with proper vetting and oversight, security vulnerabilities in Chinese tech can be detected, obviating the need for a costly ban. To enhance this argument, Huawei has opened up its source code to inspection at security labs it’s established in Brussels, Bonn and the U.K.
To Washington, these two arguments miss the mark. This is, in part, because back doors are largely indistinguishable from common coding errors in network software or firmware, making it nearly impossible to obtain smoking gun evidence of malicious intent. The sheer scale of 5G architecture will also make vetting too slow and expensive, considering the frequency of software and firmware updates involved, to be done thoroughly and regularly. (Modern software testing processes aren’t particularly good at detecting carefully designed back doors, anyway.) Moreover, the full spectrum of potential vulnerabilities with 5G won’t become known for years to come, until its myriad potential applications are developed and until, as expected, tens of billions of “smart devices” are linked into the system. By then, countries may have effectively locked themselves into partnerships with the Chinese. The costs of reversing course would be prohibitive.
To the U.S., then, it’s perfectly rational to want to deprive an adversary of capabilities that might prove dangerous – and to kneecap a company that might act on that government’s behalf. Lack of trust and competing strategic interests have everything to do with it. After all, in the 2000s the U.S. compelled its own tech firms to facilitate government surveillance in the service of national security. It would be naive to expect China to behave any differently, even if you ignored Beijing’s history of coercive activities abroad, the abundance of China-linked cyberattacks, the autocratic nature of the Chinese regime and its national security law requiring firms like Huawei to cooperate.
The other two arguments hint at a possible way for the U.S. and its allies to meet in the middle. One is that, if Chinese tech is limited to the periphery of 5G networks, any damage Beijing could do could be tightly contained. 5G networks consist of a tightly protected “core,” where servers and software execute the most sensitive and crucial functions, and the radio access network equipment (towers, masts, small cells inside buildings and along streets, and so forth) on the “edge” that connect wireless devices to the core.
|
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario