Last week, Tokyo abruptly placed new restrictions on exports to South Korea of high-tech materials essential to the country’s booming tech industry. Japanese firms now need to apply for a license to sell fluorinated polyimide (critical for making TV and smartphone displays) and etching gas and resists (critical to semiconductor manufacturing) to firms in their longtime frenemy across the Sea of Japan. With the approval process expected to take around three months – an eternity for industries built around lean, “just in time” supply chains – this spells major trouble for South Korean tech titans like Samsung and SK Hynix. These two companies alone account for around 60 percent of global memory chip production, meaning the spat may also create headaches for companies far and wide, including U.S. giants like Dell, HP and Apple. Meanwhile, Tokyo is also considering making South Korea the first country ever to be axed from Japan’s list of 27 “friendly” countries that are exempt from export controls on products that could be used for weapons manufacturing, threatening a wider array of Korean products and potentially the country’s upstart arms sector.
Tokyo has justified the move on national security grounds, arguing, without providing much evidence, that some of the materials have been making their way to chemical weapons factories in North Korea and elsewhere. Framing the move in national security terms may help Tokyo avoid a World Trade Organization challenge and diminish international opposition more broadly. But Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe admitted that the primary motivation is a series of recent South Korean court decisions requiring Japanese firms to compensate workers conscripted during Imperial Japan’s 35-year occupation of the Korean Peninsula. Already, assets belonging to two Japanese firms have been seized and are expected to be sold in the coming months. Seoul has rejected Japan’s request to settle the matter with third-country arbitration.
Japan, it seems, just can’t convince South Korea to let 80-year-old bygones be bygones. The U.S.-led regional alliance structure, along with the well-oiled regional economic system, may pay the price.
And there’s no reason to think the dispute will be resolved quickly. Tokyo insists there’s nothing to negotiate, and South Korea’s president has cautioned South Korean firms to prepare for a long fight. A prolonged spat may ultimately hurt Japan as much as South Korea, economically and strategically, and that Japan is digging in anyway reflects the depth and complexity of the historical, cultural and strategic divides shaping East Asia today. It’s yet another illustration of the inherent exposure of the region’s tightly integrated supply chains to geopolitical risk.
What Made Japan Snap?
Japan’s move may appear to be out of character. After all, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has spent much of the past two and a half years spearheading multilateral efforts to stabilize regional free trade amid threats from U.S. and Chinese protectionism by, for example, rescuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership and signing a landmark free trade agreement with the European Union. At the G-20 summit in Osaka, just two days before he moved against South Korea, Abe pledged again that Japan would lead the charge for “free, fair and indiscriminate” trade. The restrictions also appear out of step with core Japanese geopolitical imperatives. The island nation, famously, is almost wholly bereft of natural resources. It owes its survival to the free flow of commodity imports, and it owes much of its wealth to the free flow of exports of high-tech products. Its very strategy for securing its future is embodied in Abe’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” concept, which South Korea endorsed at the G-20.
Yet, here we are. What made Japan snap?
For one, Japan has never really been able to live down the sins it committed as a colonial power – sins that have routinely dogged bilateral ties with South Korea, even after the two signed a treaty in 1965 in which, according to Tokyo, Seoul agreed to refrain from pursuing reparations. In the 1990s, Japan issued vague admissions of responsibility for past wrongs and has even made repeated (if sometimes token) efforts to right them. Tokyo thought it put the issue to rest for good in 2015, when the two sides resolved in writing “finally and irreversibly” the issue of Japan’s conscription of wartime “comfort women,” with Tokyo agreeing to establish a fund for survivors and Seoul agreeing basically to just shut up about it.
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