HOW MATTEO SALVINI COULD BLOW UP THE EUROZONE / THE FINANCIAL TIMES OP EDITORIAL

How Matteo Salvini could blow up the eurozone

If Brussels corners Italy’s government over its fiscal plans, it will resort to dangerous fiscal tricks

Wolfgang Münchau


The Palazzo Montecitorio in Rome, where Italy's chamber of deputies voted last week to introduce a parallel currency © Bloomberg


A curious thing happened in the Italian parliament last week. The chamber of deputies voted unanimously in favour of a motion to introduce a parallel currency in Italy — the so-called mini-BOTs. It was a non-binding motion. I suspect that many of the MPs in the lower house probably did not know what they were voting for when they called on the Italian coalition government to consider the creation of “government bonds in small denominations”.

Mini-BOTs would look like real money. Their denominations would be the same as euro notes. Depending on how they are designed, Italians could even pay their taxes with them. For this reason they would stand a good chance of becoming an accepted means of payment. Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, gave his view last week: “Mini-BOTs are either money and then they are illegal, or they are debt and then the stock of debt goes up. I don’t think there is a third possibility.”

I am not sure I agree with Mr Draghi on this point. The mini-BOTs could be both at the same time — debt with money-like characteristics.

You might want to dismiss this development in Rome as an eccentric vote by an eccentric parliament. But consider the political context and Italy’s confrontation with the EU.

Matteo Salvini is only deputy prime minister but his League party captured 34 per cent of Italy’s popular vote in last month’s European elections. A simulation shows that his party, with a rightwing ally, would win a majority of seats in a general election. And Italy’s first-past-the-post system could leverage Mr Salvini’s power beyond his share of the vote.

In Brussels, meanwhile, the European Commission has triggered the early stages of what is known as an excessive deficit procedure against Italy. It is the first of a number of steps that could eventually end up in a financial penalty. The commission’s complaint relates to the 2018 rise in Italy’s debt to gross domestic product ratio.

It is possible that EU finance ministers will put the procedure on ice. But the stand-off is almost certain to recur in the autumn when Italy is due to present its 2020 budget. Mr Salvini is insisting on big income tax cuts that could push up the fiscal deficit by another 1 or 2 percentage points.

On economic grounds, one could probably justify a moderate short-term fiscal boost. But a big permanent tax cut would translate into an increase in Italy’s structural deficit. It would certainly breach EU rules.

This smacks of a looming conflict, possibly accompanied by a financial crisis. How would it play out and would the government collapse? The political situation is different from 2011, when Silvio Berlusconi was forced out in favour of a technocrat after losing his parliamentary majority The current government has a large majority. If it were to collapse, new elections could end in a landslide victory for Mr Salvini.

This is where the discussion on the so-called mini-BOTs comes in. Italy cannot leave the eurozone in a single dramatic act. Any politician who tried this would bring themselves down. But we do not know what Mr Salvini really wants.

Does he really want Italy to leave the eurozone? If so, the mini-BOTs are almost too good a vehicle to be true. The extra funds would allow him to cut taxes. And they would serve as an indispensable intermediate step for an eventual exit.

But if he does not want to leave the eurozone, he should not touch them. There is not much the EU could do to stop the issuance of mini-BOTs. Fiscal policy is within the domain of national sovereignty. But the European Commission will count these instruments as part of Italy’s official deficit and debt. It can argue that if people used mini-BOTs to pay their taxes, then surely the Italian government’s future euro tax revenues would decline. So would the country’s capacity to service its debt, which is denominated in euros. Mini-BOTs will not allow Italy to escape the excessive debt procedure. Their announcement could even precipitate an immediate financial crisis.

From an EU standpoint, mini-BOTs are more than just an instrument of fiscal irresponsibility. They would take the confrontation between Rome and Brussels to a new level. The eurozone would lose its cohesion if member states started to issue their own money — however fake it may be. After all, mini-BOTs were originally designed by Italian Eurosceptics for that very reason.

The EU should also tread with caution. There is a strong case not to proceed with an excessive deficit procedure right now and to wait until the autumn. The danger is that the more Mr Salvini is politically cornered, the more likely he is to resort to this instrument. When he does, the eurozone crisis will return. And the ECB may not be able to come to the rescue this time.