Never mind Britain’s prosperity or security, nothing matters except the Tory party
Philip Stephens
From the beginning it has been all about the Conservatives. First former prime minister David Cameron gambled Britain’s relationship with Europe on a bid for a quieter life from his party’s English nationalists. Now Theresa May promises to hand them the keys to 10 Downing Street if only they support the Brexit accord she has negotiated with Brussels. Never mind the nation’s prosperity or security; forget business and workers. Nothing matters except the Tory party.
Mrs May’s offer to step aside is anything but a noble gesture. Her premiership ended some time ago. What she now proposes is a squalid leadership pact in return for the passage by parliament of a wretched deal that would weaken and impoverish Britain. Lend me your votes, the prime minister is saying to the kamikaze Brexiters, and you can seize control of the second phase of Brexit. You can go on re-fighting the second world war for as long as you like — throw up the barricades, demonise the Germans and insult the French to your hearts’ content. The bargain takes the measure of Mrs May’s dismal leadership; a vivid testimony to a stubborn, weak and blinkered leader.
Boris Johnson, who forever imagines himself as Winston Churchill, has consistently lacerated the prime minister’s deal. Mrs May, the former foreign secretary has said 100 times, wanted to sign up to terms promising vassalage. A thousand years of proud British democracy would be erased at a stroke and the nation reduced to the status of an EU colony. The world has seen nothing so ruinous since the sacking of Carthage.
And now? Well, what would you expect of a politician who has lied and cheated his way through life? The promise of a vacancy at the top has changed things. Mr Johnson has decided he will back the deal after all. Mrs May cannot see beyond the narrow interests of her party. Her would-be successor is consumed by an obsessive ambition to be prime minister. Whether this latest swerve will get the deal over the line in the House of Commons is less certain. To my mind, the road to Brexit looks as impassable as it has ever done.
Thirty-three months after the referendum, one or two things should be obvious. The Tories, once known for the pragmatic pursuit of power, have been broken on the anvil of English nationalism — ready to gamble even the future of the union of the UK to sate their disdain for Europe. Forget the Brexiters’ guff about a new “global” Britain. The hardliners sing from the same jingoistic hymn sheet as do far-right populists across western democracies.
Mrs May’s government is beyond repair. It lacks the prerequisites for a functioning administration: a leader capable of exercising authority, a modicum of trust and discipline within the cabinet, and a rough consensus on policy objectives. Whitehall insiders speak of the prime minister as an automaton, unwilling or unable to absorb realities, of Brexiter ministers refusing to admit inconvenient truths, and a complete breakdown of collective responsibility.
The code of conduct issued to ministers includes a list of seven principles of public life. The first is clear and succinct: “Holders of public office should act solely in terms of the public interest.” In her handling of Brexit, Mrs May has done everything but that. From cabinet downwards, ministerial discussions and debates are directed at the interests of the Tory party. With an eye on posterity (and a likely future public inquiry into the Brexit debacle), some officials have taken to filing away written notes of the most egregious breaches. Even the official cabinet minutes carry references to contributions framed around party rather than public interest.
Mrs May hopes her Faustian pact has given her one last shot of getting her deal through the House of Commons. Many erstwhile rebels have joined Mr Johnson and fallen into line, and there is Treasury money on offer to Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party if its 10 MPs drop their opposition.
I struggle to see the prime minister assembling a majority, even with the support of some Labour MPs. I wonder whether the outcome matters any longer. Victory once is not enough. To take the necessary legislation through parliament, Mrs May would have to win a succession of votes over several weeks. That is surely beyond her.
To the extent that parliament has seized the initiative, this week’s indicative votes have opened up a possible alternative to Mrs May’s plan. They point to a softer Brexit with closer economic engagement with the EU27. The ambition for a customs union could be added to the political statement on the future relationship that sits alongside Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement. How she could reverse her opposition to a customs union is a harder question.
Some in Whitehall see a renewed risk of Britain crashing out of the EU. My intuition says that the cabinet and the civil service, with the backing of a Commons majority, would act to prevent such an outcome — in extremis by revoking Article 50.
To borrow a phrase, it is time to take back control. It is all but impossible to reach a half-sensible agreement against the present deadlines. The case for a referendum looks irrefutable. Mrs May’s government cannot bear the weight of its contradictions much longer. A general election looms ever closer on the horizon. Brexit has brought Britain to its knees. Mrs May’s promise to scuttle out of Downing Street will solve nothing.
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