Angela Merkel, Donald Trump and a broken alliance
Weakening ties between US and Europe mainly benefit China and Russia
Philip Stephens
Here in the grand ballroom of Munich’s Bayerischer Hof was a moment for Europeans to feel good about themselves. Angela Merkel’s broadside against Donald Trump’s US administration in defence of the liberal international order unlocked a cascade of pent-up frustration. Mike Pence, who followed the German chancellor to the podium on Saturday, must have had his headphones turned off. America’s allies, the US vice-president intoned, should do as they were told.
That this exchange took place at the Munich Security Conference, for 50 years a spiritual home of Atlanticism, tells you something about the state of a relationship that not so long ago celebrated the victory over Soviet communism. Europeans have been inclined to downplay the impact of Mr Trump’s presidency on the Nato alliance. But enough is enough.
In this case, “enough” for Ms Merkel included Mr Trump’s unilateral decisions to pull American troops out Afghanistan and Syria, to withdraw from the treaty prohibiting the deployment of intermediate range nuclear weapons, and to threaten Europe for not falling into line with US sanctions against Iran. Each has a vital bearing on European security; all were taken by the White House without reference to, or discussion with, partners.
Add Mr Trump’s absurd threat to declare that European (he means German) auto exports are a danger to US national security and you can see why an energised, almost emotional, Ms Merkel received a standing ovation — and why a wooden Mr Pence was met with near silence.
The winners in Munich were Russia and China. Sergei Lavrov, the hard-bitten Russian foreign minister, rarely allows himself a smile. He struggled to suppress his satisfaction. If Russian president Vladimir Putin has one overarching strategic goal, it is to drive a wedge between Europeans and Americans. Let us Europeans run our common home, Mr Lavrov offers. What he means, of course, is that with the Americans gone Moscow can take charge.
Beijing also sees an opportunity. Yang Jiechi, the Communist party’s foreign affairs chief, put China firmly on Ms Merkel’s side, lauding the role of global rules and institutions in facing challenges such as nuclear proliferation and climate change. Mr Yang paid homage to multilateralism almost as often as Mr Pence praised Mr Trump.
Europeans have concerns about Beijing’s push westwards through its Belt and Road Initiative and about the lead China’s Huawei has taken in producing next generation communications technology. But does the continent, Mr Yang asked, really want to put itself at the mercy of US technological hegemony?
There are still those who believe that things can again be as they used to be. Mr Trump has, at most, six more years in the White House and, with a little luck, only two. The Democrats, newly in charge of the House of Representatives, sent a sizeable delegation to Munich carrying the message that Washington still has Atlanticists. Optimists point to a gap between Mr Trump’s rhetoric and US policy on the ground. He derides Nato; the Pentagon has sent more US troops to eastern Europe to counter the threat from Russian revisionism.
True enough. But the reality-is-not-as-bad-as-the-rhetoric school ignores the hollowing out of an alliance once grounded in shared principles and values as well as common defence. Nato’s founding charter starts with a commitment to democracy, freedom and the rule of law. These are not values that much interest Mr Trump. The US president has made plain his preference for authoritarian strong men over champions of a liberal international order. The rule of law scarcely looms large in his worldview.
The corrosive impact of this on European public opinion shows up in surveys showing the collapse of trust in American leadership. How can Germany make the case for Atlanticism, Berlin diplomats fret, when a sizeable proportion of the country’s voters would rather put their faith in Mr Putin than in the president of the US.
The weakening of the alliance predates Mr Trump. For all his grand rhetoric, former US president Barack Obama waited until the end of his second term to show much interest in refurbishing ties with Europe. The absence at this year’s gathering of the late senator John McCain spoke soberly to the passing of the generation of American politicians and policymakers for whom Atlanticism was mother’s milk. But take away the commonality of values and the very foundations crack.
The hard geopolitical truth is that both sides still need each other. Ms Merkel may talk about Europe taking on more responsibility for its own security affairs, but there is little evidence she is ready to persuade a pacifist Germany to turn that way. French president Emmanuel Macron has tried to force the pace. Ms Merkel has slowed it.
As for the US, Mr Trump may not understand this but the shifts in global power make Europe a more rather than a less important ally. This is not a continent that Washington can afford to cede to its rivals. What has been lost is the warmth that comes with the idea of a shared endeavour and the trust that allows space for valid disagreements. In a world destined to be shaped by coldly transactional alliances, Europeans and Americans are both losers.
0 comments:
Publicar un comentario