If or when Yemen’s civil war draws to a close, another one may well be waiting. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have different end games in mind, despite fighting in the same coalition against the Iranian-sponsored Houthis. In fact, their shared interest in Yemen begins and ends with eliminating, or at least curbing, Iran’s influence on the Arabian Peninsula. Their diverging needs already have led to clashes between Emirati- and Saudi-backed forces in Yemen.
In January, for example, a fight broke out between members of the Southern Transitional Council, a secessionist group supported by the UAE, and forces loyal to President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi, head of Yemen’s internationally recognized – and Saudi-approved – government. And on Oct. 3, the STC took aim at the exiled president once again, calling for an uprising against his government. The latest incident highlighted the cracks in the Saudi-UAE alliance, which will probably only grow as the Yemeni conflict continues.
Different Goals
Understanding why the STC and government forces are beginning to turn on each other after fighting on the same side of the civil war requires an understanding of their patrons’ interests in Yemen. The Houthis, an Iranian proxy group, pose an immediate threat to Saudi Arabia, which shares a border with Yemen. To prevent a hostile regime from taking power just across its southern boundary, the kingdom is working to install a more sympathetic government in Yemen. Doing so, however, requires that the state remain unified. With that goal in mind, Saudi Arabia has joined forces with Islah, a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate that also wants to maintain Yemen’s unity.
The UAE, on the other hand, is concerned less with the proximity of the Houthis – after all, it does not border Yemen – than with their access to critical shipping channels in the region. The Houthi presence in the port of Hodeida puts sea lanes in the Red Sea and Suez Canal, which Saudi Arabia and the UAE depend on in their energy trade with North America and Europe, at risk. It also jeopardizes the naval bases that the UAE has established along the Horn of Africa during the course of the Yemeni conflict. (The ports in Assab, Eritrea, and Berbera, Somaliland, offer the UAE some flexibility in case Iran interrupts its trade through the Persian Gulf.) To maintain supply routes to the bases, Emirati forces need control of Yemen’s southern coast, especially the port of Aden, and its western shores on the strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait.
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