Peru's presidential election
Inside out
Mar 23rd 2011, 15:45
by M.R.
LIMA
.
PERU has a tradition of political outsiders who appear from nowhere to stage political shocks. The most notable example was Alberto Fujimori, a previously obscure university rector who won the presidency as an independent in 1990 even though opinion polls gave him less than 5% of the vote only a fortnight before the first round of voting. In 2006 Ollanta Humala, a populist former army officer with no previous political experience, came within five percentage points of winning.
Is history about to repeat itself? According to a poll by Ipsos-Apoyo, Peru’s leading pollster, published on March 20th, in the previous three weeks support for Pedro Pablo Kuczynski surged from 6% to 14%. Meanwhile, backing for Alejandro Toledo, the president from 2001-06 who was comfortably leading the polls, has slipped from 28% to 23% over the same period. With three other candidates bunched between them, and less than three weeks to go before the vote on April 10th, Mr Kuczynski could squeeze into the inevitable run-off if his momentum continues.
What makes this prospect remarkable is that Mr Kuczynski is about as far removed from the stereotype of a Latin American politician as you could imagine. He is a former IMF and World Bank official and investment banker who has spent much of his life in the United States. He is an accomplished classical flautist. He holds both Peruvian and American passports, and is married to an American. During a long career—he is 72 years old—he has served as a minister in two different Peruvian governments. In other words, he is the quintessential insider, a man of gringo mannerisms and a representative of the rich in a poor country.
So far, most of Mr Kuczynski’s support comes from better-off Peruvians, especially in Lima, the capital. Buoyed by the latest polls, he is spending this week touring Peru’s poorer interior. His stump appearances are unusual: he plays the flute, and is accompanied by a Mexican self-help guru. Having been Mr Toledo’s finance minister, Mr Kuczynski claims credit for Peru’s booming economic growth. He promises to eliminate extreme poverty in ten years and double education spending while also cutting taxes.
If his capitalist message is going down well, that is a sign of how much Peru has changed since the 1970s and 1980s, when collectivist ideas reigned. Its economy has been among the fastest-growing in Latin America in the past decade, powered by investment in mining but also by agricultural exports and manufacturing.
But most Peruvians work informally, in small family businesses.
Mr Fujimori and Mr Humala did well by gathering a groundswell of support among the poor. It is harder to win from a base among the better-off, cautions Alfredo Torres of Ipsos-Apoyo. Mr Humala, now on 17%, is also rising. If he makes it to the run-off, he would doubtless find Mr Kuczynski an easier opponent than Mr Toledo. In 2006 Mr Humala had the support of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Now he has switched his external ties to Brazil’s ruling Workers’ Party. But he still arouses worries among businessmen and democrats that he would try to nudge Peru in a more authoritarian, populist direction. Peruvians await the coming polls with unusual interest.
Inside out
Mar 23rd 2011, 15:45
by M.R.
LIMA
.
PERU has a tradition of political outsiders who appear from nowhere to stage political shocks. The most notable example was Alberto Fujimori, a previously obscure university rector who won the presidency as an independent in 1990 even though opinion polls gave him less than 5% of the vote only a fortnight before the first round of voting. In 2006 Ollanta Humala, a populist former army officer with no previous political experience, came within five percentage points of winning.
Is history about to repeat itself? According to a poll by Ipsos-Apoyo, Peru’s leading pollster, published on March 20th, in the previous three weeks support for Pedro Pablo Kuczynski surged from 6% to 14%. Meanwhile, backing for Alejandro Toledo, the president from 2001-06 who was comfortably leading the polls, has slipped from 28% to 23% over the same period. With three other candidates bunched between them, and less than three weeks to go before the vote on April 10th, Mr Kuczynski could squeeze into the inevitable run-off if his momentum continues.
What makes this prospect remarkable is that Mr Kuczynski is about as far removed from the stereotype of a Latin American politician as you could imagine. He is a former IMF and World Bank official and investment banker who has spent much of his life in the United States. He is an accomplished classical flautist. He holds both Peruvian and American passports, and is married to an American. During a long career—he is 72 years old—he has served as a minister in two different Peruvian governments. In other words, he is the quintessential insider, a man of gringo mannerisms and a representative of the rich in a poor country.
So far, most of Mr Kuczynski’s support comes from better-off Peruvians, especially in Lima, the capital. Buoyed by the latest polls, he is spending this week touring Peru’s poorer interior. His stump appearances are unusual: he plays the flute, and is accompanied by a Mexican self-help guru. Having been Mr Toledo’s finance minister, Mr Kuczynski claims credit for Peru’s booming economic growth. He promises to eliminate extreme poverty in ten years and double education spending while also cutting taxes.
If his capitalist message is going down well, that is a sign of how much Peru has changed since the 1970s and 1980s, when collectivist ideas reigned. Its economy has been among the fastest-growing in Latin America in the past decade, powered by investment in mining but also by agricultural exports and manufacturing.
But most Peruvians work informally, in small family businesses.
Mr Fujimori and Mr Humala did well by gathering a groundswell of support among the poor. It is harder to win from a base among the better-off, cautions Alfredo Torres of Ipsos-Apoyo. Mr Humala, now on 17%, is also rising. If he makes it to the run-off, he would doubtless find Mr Kuczynski an easier opponent than Mr Toledo. In 2006 Mr Humala had the support of Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez. Now he has switched his external ties to Brazil’s ruling Workers’ Party. But he still arouses worries among businessmen and democrats that he would try to nudge Peru in a more authoritarian, populist direction. Peruvians await the coming polls with unusual interest.
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