AUTOCRATIC LEADERS MISS THE POINT / THE FINANCIAL TIMES GLOBAL INSIGHT ( HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING )

Autocratic leaders miss the point

By Roula Khalaf in London


Published: March 1 2011 17:58

A day after a wave of Arab protests washed up on the shores of the sleepy Gulf state of Oman, Sultan Qaboos bin Said al-Said rushed in a raft of pledges.


As protesters flowed into a central roundabout in the northern city of Sohar, in an attempt to emulate their Bahraini neighbours’ in Manama and Cairo’s protest centre of Tahrir Square, the sultan promised 50,000 new jobs and $400 a month in unemployment benefits.


The Omani sultan of 40 years thus joined the growing group of anxious Arab leaders scrambling to placate a frustrated youth with financial handouts and economic promises. He was following Kuwait and, most dramatically, Saudi Arabia, which last week announced a $36bn package of housing loans, unemployment benefits and pay rises.


Autocratic leaders are trying to insulate themselves from a raging storm that is hitting hard and indiscriminately. Countries that were seen as potential trouble spots a few weeks ago – Algeria, for example – have so far escaped sustained mass protests, while more quiescent lands such as Oman have not. And monarchies were said to be less threatened than republics until Bahrain was swept by a Shia uprising and protests erupted in Morocco.


Nervous at the prospect of a domestic explosion of youth anger – that could, as Libya is now showing, also combine with punishing sanctions from western allies – Arab rulers still standing are hoping to pay their way out of trouble.


The bad news is that their strategies are missing the point of the unrest. If there is a single message from the revolts it is that for the first time in decades Arabs are clamouring for political rights and accountable government – not only social benefits.


True, in some cases, the protesters’ demands on the surface are for more jobs and higher wages, but behind these calls linger deeper grievances over bad governance and the accumulation of economic power around ruling elites. Even in the United Arab Emirates, where a small population has been largely pampered, political activists are demanding greater democratisation.


Remarkably, not a single leader in the region is putting forward a creative political strategy to address the discontent, opting instead for half-measures designed to safeguard the very systems public opinion is rejecting.

In Saudi Arabia, the financial handouts were followed by the reported arrest of a Shia cleric in the eastern province after he called, in a Friday sermon, for a constitutional monarchy and an end to corruption.


Meanwhile, in countries where rulers have taken political steps, the moves have been too small and hesitant. Jordan’s king, for example, dismissed his cabinet and mandated a new one to produce a blueprint for political reform when the monarchy is the holder of real power and the only institution that can decide to share it.


Algeria lifted its 19-year state of emergency, as the opposition has been demanding, but it diluted the impact by maintaining a ban on protests.


The UAE’s political concessions were more timid. The government merely promised to widen the electoral college that chooses representatives to the consultative federal national council.


Even the most desperate rulers are resisting genuine reform. Yemen’s Ali Abdallah Saleh has conceded that neither he nor his son would run in the 2013 elections. But the minimum demands of the street are for a dilution in the powers of the president and a clean-up at the top, where positions are dominated by the president’s family.


As for Bahrain, the ruling al-Khalifas have managed to win a pause in the Shia rebellion against their Sunni-dominated regime, as the influence of the reformist wing of the family secured an end to a bloody security crackdown, the release of political prisoners and a cabinet reshuffle. Bahraini leaders hopefully are not under the illusion that the majority Shia population will vacate the Pearl roundabout and end the protests without real institutional change and a power-sharing deal under a constitutional monarchy.

Many autocrats might be simply incapable of reform. But as protests spread from country to country, responding credibly and rapidly to a devastating mood for change is looking like the only effective strategy for survival.


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2011.