CHINA MUSCLE - FLEXING IS A SIGN OF WEAKNESS / THE FINANCIAL TIMES COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS ( HIGHLY RECOMMENDED READING )

China’s muscle-flexing is a sign of weakness


By Jonathan Holslag

Last updated: September 27 2010 23:09

The more China advances, the more it seems to forget that its progress has been achieved through moderation and composure. Last week’s showdown with Japan over the custody of a Chinese fisherman strengthened the impression that power brings arrogance. After halting official contacts, Wen Jiabao, the usually mild-mannered Chinese premier, warned Tokyo to brace for severe consequences. At the weekend, Japan rejected Chinese demands for compensation and on Monday said it might call for compensation of its own. But, emboldened by the eruption of nationalism, Chinese experts, journalists and bloggers have been calling for economic sanctions – and military force to protect the country’s trawlers in the East China sea.


China’s apparent assertiveness remains more an expression of weakness than of strength. The spat demonstrates that territorial frictions increasingly flare up as a consequence of economic needs. In this case, decreasing stocks of blue fin tuna have driven adventurous trawler captains deeper into disputed waters. In the same way, growing demand for energy is putting pressure on China to enforce its claims over contested offshore oilfields in the East and South China seas, estimated to harbour more than 200bn barrels of oil. Also, because of rapidly depleting water reserves, the border conflict with India could soon fuse with fierce rivalry over Himalayan rivers. In spite of a water-sharing agreement, China has continued building dams and irrigation projects on the upper stream of the Brahmaputra.




China’s neighbours have not missed the appeals of its leaders and experts to equip the People’s Liberation Army to defend national development and overseas economic interests. For them it is still an open question whether China’s maturing military diplomacy and emerging blue water navy will serve regional security or help build a new sphere of influence.


Similar concerns exist about China’s economic nationalism, which feeds on a strong historical sense of vulnerability. In the late 1990s, increasing dependence on foreign companies led Beijing to build strong national industries in the protected shell of the domestic market. But then excess capacity and reliance on foreign consumer markets impelled Beijing to strive to make its national champions truly global and to back them with an assertive trade policy.


While industrialised nations see this as unfair competition and try to straitjacket China into large regional organisations, developing countries are alarmed about Beijing’s attempts to buy and bully itself into their markets. They are determined to keep China’s champions at bay, protecting strategic sectors and raising the stakes in trade talks. Central Asian countries have refused a free trade zone with China, while south-east Asian nations have demanded further concessions for a trade accord that came into force this year. China looks increasingly like a trapped giant.


In the past 30 years, the People’s Republic has mainly sought to regain its leading status in the international community by becoming a part of it. But, today, its economic model has become unsustainable: in spite of six years of bold declarations and experiments, it has got only more addicted to export-led manufacturing and investment in fixed assets. Unrest from Xinjiang to the factory halls of Shenzhen has cast a shadow over the harmonious society doctrine of Mr Wen and President Hu Jintao. Beleaguered by ambitious oligarchs on the right and a revival of communist patriotism on the left, the leadership is weakened. This reduces Mr Hu and Mr Wen’s scope for making compromises and raises the question of how the next generation of leaders will reinvent Chinese nationalism.


We have seen outbursts of assertiveness before, but this episode is the product of a bottleneck in China’s domestic transition, which, if not managed well, could lead to a return of destabilising patriotism. China flexes its muscle at a moment when other powers feel less confident about their future and are under pressure to stand strong. In such a climate, distrust could turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy, because it weakens the position of moderate leaders, stirs mutual fear of aggression and, above all, strengthens the belief that shifts in the balance of power inevitably lead to greater global rivalry.


The writer is a research fellow at the Brussels Institute of Contemporary Studies. He is author of China and India: Prospects for Peace


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010.