'Our Options Are Limited'
Korean Crisis Puts China in a Quandry
By Andreas Lorenz and Wieland Wagner
The two Koreas are in a dangerous standoff over the sinking of a South Korean warship by the north. Given Pyongyang's suspected nuclear weapons, any conflict could quickly turn very nasty. The crisis presents China, North Korea's main ally and an important trading partner of South Korea, with a difficult dilemma.
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South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, 68, selected the museum-like War Memorial of Korea as the background for his blood, sweat and tears speech. The memorial, an enormous stone tomb near the Defense Ministry in the South Korean capital Seoul, is filled with relics of the Korean War between North and South Korea, a bloody conflict that claimed 4 million lives between 1950 and 1953.
Another curiosity could soon be on display at the museum: parts of the wreckage from the Cheonan, the South Korean warship that broke in two and sank after an explosion on March 26 in the Yellow Sea.
But because the macabre exhibit is not yet available, Lee stood in front of two rows of busts of heroic warriors to make it clear to his people and the world that a new era has begun, a dangerous era, but also one in which the South Koreans will no longer be willing to take things lying down. Lee blamed the deaths of the 46 sailors on board the Cheonan on a torpedo attack by North Korea and announced that his country would almost completely suspend trade with the aggressors. He also said that his government would push the United Nations to impose sanctions against Pyongyang, and noted that this time the regime there would have to "pay a price" for the deadly attack.
No More Blackmail
The message was clear: The torpedo attack by the north, which would normally be seen as a declaration of war, was at the very least one provocation too many. The south, Lee said, no longer intended to react helplessly to attacks from the north, nor would it continue to submit to perpetual blackmail by the regime and its "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il, who considers himself to be godlike and infallible. If the conservative Lee has his way, all the minor incidents in the Yellow Sea along the maritime border between the two countries, which is not recognized by the north, all the threatening military gestures and the testing of new missiles will have consequences in the future.
The conciliatory "Sunshine Policy" toward the north which was pursued by Lee's predecessors Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun is over for good. It helped protect the Kim dynasty's Stalinist regime against an uncontrolled collapse.
But for the North Koreans, merely the announcement that South Korea's patience is now at an end constituted a "declaration of war." The response came quickly, when Pyongyang threatened to fire at the oversized loudspeakers Lee intends to install at the border between the two countries. For the first time since 2004, Seoul plans to blare propaganda touting the blessings of democracy and capitalism for several kilometers into the realm of the Kims, regaling the North Koreans with hour after hour of news about the latest crimes of their Dear Leader.
In return, Pyongyang announced that it intended to curtail trade with the south and that it would consider closing Kaesong, a capitalist enclave near the border, where roughly 40,000 subjects of dictator Kim Jong-il make shoes, clothing and other inexpensive goods for South Korean companies. On Monday, North Korea said, in a message delivered through South Korean businessmen, that it wanted to keep Kaesong going, however.
The World Holds Its Breath
Tensions have been ratcheted up to their highest level in years. Late last week, Pyongyang cut off important hotlines to the south designed to prevent unwanted armed conflicts. Seoul promptly raised the alert level for its troops and its warships began maneuvers in the Yellow Sea, where they practiced hunting down North Korean submarines and tested anti-submarine bombs.
Once again, the Koreans have the rest of the world holding its breath. The global financial markets took an increasingly nervous view of the Far East, with stock prices falling on markets from Tokyo to Singapore and the South Korean won dropping to its lowest rate against the dollar in eight months.
In no other place on Earth do the conflicting interests of three major powers -- the United States, China and Russia -- as well as those of economic giants Japan and South Korea, collide as sharply as they do on the 38th parallel. What makes the situation so unpredictable is that, ever since Kim Jong-il ordered another nuclear test conducted a year ago, the fear now is that his military possesses nuclear weapons and could possibly use them. In addition, Seoul, a city of 20 million people, lies within the range of North Korean artillery. A single shot could trigger an unstoppable catastrophe.
Last week, the major powers looked on helplessly as the conflict escalated between Pyongyang and Seoul. "The north and the south are rushing toward each other like two trains on the same track," warned former South Korean Foreign Minister Song Min-soon of the opposition Democrats. Neither side can deviate from its position without losing face. If Lee backed down, the threats he has made so far would seem ridiculous. And if Kim issued an apology for the torpedo attack, as Seoul is demanding, he would undermine his regime's authority.
What Is Kim Jong-Il Trying to Achieve?
But what is the North Korean ruler, who likes his subjects to pay homage to him as the "Sun of the 21st Century," trying to achieve? Was his regime seeking to start a "holy war" by sinking the Cheonan, as Pyongyang threatened when the south fired on a North Korean warship last November? Or -- and there is some evidence to support this theory -- is Kim, who is poor health, trying to get the US's attention, so as to extort Washington into giving him economic aid and political recognition?
Kim, who reportedly intends to anoint his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as the heir to the throne soon, is under pressure to offer his subjects the prospect of better conditions, after promising them prosperity by 2012, the 100th birthday of his father, the nation's late founder Kim Il-sung. But Kim Jong-il antagonized his country's small middle class with his failed currency reform last year, when he forced them to convert their assets into the new won at a ratio of one to 100. He reportedly had his chief of planning and the economy, who was blamed for the ensuing chaos, the supply bottlenecks and the unusual protests by his subjects, executed by firing squad.
But this time, with the attack on the Cheonan, the North Korean regime appears to have overplayed its risky survival tactics of threats and extortion. Unlike his liberal predecessors, South Korean President Lee won't be intimidated. The former Hyundai executive is a hardliner who insists, among other things, that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear program.
International Support
In addition, the man in the Blue House, as the presidential palace in Seoul is known, has secured international support for his plan to isolate the north. Only after a thorough inspection of the wreckage of the Cheonan, for which the South Korean government brought in 24 military experts from the United States, Great Britain, Australia and Sweden, did Lee blame North Korea for the attack.
The investigative commission's central piece of evidence was a piece of a torpedo engine found at the site of the accident. The marking "No. 1" was found on the inside of the engine -- a typical label reportedly found on North Korean torpedoes in the past.
Now the UN office in Seoul is also interested in the commission's expert report. The UN, which came to the aid of the south in a US-led effort when the Korean War erupted in 1950, wants to examine whether North Korea violated the 1953 ceasefire agreement with its torpedo attack. From the American perspective, the advantage of this approach is that the government of US President Barack Obama will not have to negotiate directly with Kim over the sinking of the Cheonan.
The critical situation on the Korean peninsula also weighed heavily on a US-Chinese strategy meeting in Beijing last week. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had traveled to the Chinese capital to secure China's support for tougher sanctions against Iran. But now the two powers must also find ways to prevent a new war between their respective Korean allies, a collision that could reignite the geopolitical conflict of interest between Beijing and Washington in Korea.
'We Are in a Dilemma'
Beijing wants to prevent the Americans from taking advantage of the new Korean crisis to regain a stronger foothold in the region, particularly now that Obama has assured the south his "unconditional support" in its conflict with North Korea. At the same time, the government in Washington could place North Korea back on its list of countries that support terrorism. Moreover, Beijing fears that Japan and South Korea could eventually follow in Kim Jong-il's footsteps and acquire nuclear weapons.
For the Americans, however, the tensions in the region are not entirely inopportune. For months, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had urged the Western superpower to close a US base on the island of Okinawa. But after the Korean crisis erupted, the Japanese prime minister had no alternative but to meekly drop his demands. He "sincerely" apologized to the residents of Okinawa and told them that they would have to continue to put up with US troops in the future.
America's presence in the region probably also explains why China has not even considered clearly condemning its ally North Korea for the attack on the Cheonan. Last Wednesday, Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun explained that Prime Minister Wen Jiabao planned to hold "strategic consultations" during an official visit to Seoul, but the official had no response to the core issue of how China could convince its ally to come to its senses.
"We are in a dilemma. Our role on the Korean peninsula is limited, and so are our options," explained a high-ranking Korea expert in Beijing. On the one hand, China does not want to alienate South Korea, an important trading partner, while on the other hand, Beijing's communists want to remain ideologically faithful to North Korea. Former Chinese leader Mao Zedong sacrificed about a million soldiers in the Korean War, including his own son. This is something Mao's heirs cannot forget.
Concerns about Stability
Furthermore, Beijing is concerned about stability within its own realm. A new war could drive hundreds of thousands of North Korean refugees into China, which shares a 1,400-kilometer (875-mile) border with North Korea. And if the Kim dynasty collapsed, American troops could advance to the Yalu and Tumen rivers -- a horrific prospect for Beijing. Generals in the People's Liberation Army are reportedly already thinking of declaring North Korea a Chinese protectorate in the event of a crisis -- and marching into the country themselves.
The only people who have remained relatively unimpressed by the exaggerated propaganda efforts of the two nations are the people living on either side of the 38th parallel. Last week, they simply went about their daily business. In Pyongyang, Kim's subjects practiced for the Arirang mass festival, while female soldiers conducted drills for military parades planned for the 65th anniversary of the founding of the Workers Party.
Calm also prevailed on the south side of the demarcation line. On a sunny, idyllic day last week, things were very quiet at the Dorasan train station on the border, built years ago in the hope of reconciliation. A sign at the station indicates future destinations: Seoul in one direction and Pyongyang in the other. But there were no passengers to be seen. A soldier wearing a steel helmet stood guard, barring access to the platforms.
Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan
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