STATES OF CONFLICT : AN UPDATE / THE NEW YORK TIMES OP EDITORIAL ( RECOMMENDED READING )

January 3, 2010


Op-Chart


States of Conflict: An Update


By IAN LIVINGSTON, HEATHER MESSERA, MICHAEL O’HANLON and AMY UNIKEWICZ


In 2009, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan dominated American military and foreign policy. Which themes emerged over the last year?

In Iraq, 2009 was the year of relatively smooth transitions. Despite catastrophic attacks in August, October and December, and a continuing level of violence that keeps it a troubled place by normal standards, the year went reasonably well in statistical terms. Violence did not increase, even as United States forces left the cities and generally reduced their role.

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In Pakistan, 2009 was the year of the offensives. The country was still very turbulent, but major government military initiatives in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan reflected a new determination against the Pakistani Taliban. Unfortunately, the Taliban responded in its own brutal way with an intensification of suicide attacks against civilians, killing hundreds.

But momentum may be shifting to the government’s side — helped by successful American drone attacks against top Taliban and Qaeda leaders. That said, in terms of the basic strength of its economy and society, Pakistan is far from out of the woods.

In Afghanistan, 2009 was the year of decisions — by President Obama, of course, by Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal and by the Afghan people as they re-elected Hamid Karzai as president. Afghanistan had a bloody year, with more than 300 Americans and some 500 international troops, as well as more than 1,000 Afghan security personnel, losing their lives.

However, as General McChrystal noted in recent Congressional testimony following President Obama’s decision to raise troop levels in Afghanistan, our operations have begun to change the momentum in parts of the country — though this momentum is bound to be halting, as last week’s horrific suicide bombing at a United States base made painfully clear. In the year ahead, the hope is that this fragile progress will continue, and that President Karzai will justify American support by accelerating his efforts to reform the Afghan police force and to root out corruption.

Ian Livingston and Heather Messera are researchers at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow there and the author of “The Science of War.” Amy Unikewicz is a graphic designer in South Norwalk, Conn.

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