jueves, 3 de enero de 2019

jueves, enero 03, 2019

Military misunderstandings

More worrying than a US-China trade war is the risk of a hot one

Better communication between their armed forces would help avoid one



IT IS A sobering thought that official military communication between America and China is still conducted by fax machine. The use of this obsolete technology symbolises a worrying lack of effective dialogue between the two countries’ armed forces. The giants jostle for space in the western Pacific; their ships and jets manoeuvre close to each other every day. Neither side wants war, but China is intent on keeping America at bay. It is easy to imagine how a collision in the air or at sea could escalate. Casualties could fan nationalist flames on either side and cause twitchy officers, or political leaders, to respond in ways that lead rapidly to disaster. So could a misunderstanding by either side of the other’s military movements. Relations between China and America are already strained over trade and a host of other matters. So it is only common sense to try to reduce the risk that their cold-war style sparring might turn hot.

American and Chinese officers are getting to know each other better. Exchanges between their military academies, port calls and high-level visits to each other’s countries have multiplied over the years. But there is still a huge gulf. Much of the interaction is superficial. American officers often describe the Chinese who talk to them as “barbarian handlers”: polished, English-speaking political appointees, usually intelligence officers, whose uniforms have never been crumpled or muddied. The Americans are sometimes led around empty Potemkin bases and entertained with kung fu shows rather than genuine drills. They wonder why they should waste their time on such junkets, which offer little insight into Chinese intentions or how the two sides might defuse a crisis. When senior officers of the two sides meet, the Chinese tend to spend much of the time lambasting American foreign policy rather than discussing how to build trust.
In recent years China has forged ever-closer military ties with Russia. In September China sent thousands of troops to join Russia’s largest manoeuvres since the cold war. But when invited to take part in American exercises, China has behaved boorishly. In 2014 America, to its credit, allowed the Chinese navy to join RIMPAC, the world’s largest multinational war games at sea. Instead of responding with camaraderie, China demanded plum roles, sent spy ships to snoop on the manoeuvres and barred Japanese officers from the traditional shipboard cocktail party. America excluded China from RIMPAC this year in protest against China’s deployment of missiles on artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea. That upset the Chinese navy, but the Americans rightly felt no loss. Even when given an opportunity to build bridges, Chinese officers have chosen to ignore it.

The two armed forces do not just use faxes to communicate. A channel called the Defence Telephone Link was set up a decade ago. A whizzier video link between the chairman of America’s joint chiefs of staff and his Chinese counterpart was established more recently. The problem is not a lack of channels. It is how they are used. American officials have made clear that if China were to call during a crisis, they would pick up the phone. They are not sure whether China would do the same.

Part of the problem is the way that China’s armed forces work. The Communist Party is present throughout the military hierarchy. Its political commissars often wield as much power as commanders who are genuine soldiers. Especially at higher levels, Chinese officers can move only at the speed of a committee. But that is no excuse for China’s habit of unplugging the phone. Swift communication may not end a crisis, but it can certainly reduce the danger of tensions flaring up over a misunderstanding.

Going ballistic

Mercifully, when Barack Obama was president, the two countries managed to establish some rules for managing close encounters between their ships and planes. That has led to fewer near collisions in the air and at sea. But that still falls short. China’s relentless beefing up of its military forces has created an urgent need for wider-ranging agreements. Pentagon officials say China is arming its air force with nuclear weapons. That would give China a complete “triad” of nuclear weaponry, launchable from the air, land and sea. Yet the two armed forces have not held nuclear talks in over ten years. Even the Soviet Union agreed to give warnings about ballistic-missile tests. The Chinese refuse to consider such a confidence-building measure, despite the growing importance of missiles to both countries.

On a visit to Washington, DC, in November China’s defence minister, Wei Fenghe, said that communication must be strengthened. It is good that China recognises this. But all too often the country lets pique over unconnected business disrupt military contacts. In 2018 it cancelled multiple high-level talks, including an embryonic dialogue between senior military officers. Not since the cold war has it been so crucial for global peace for two defence establishments to talk.

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