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As age-defying stunts go, our mature bull market has gone 84 sessions—and counting—without a single daily decline of 1% or more, notwithstanding an onslaught of executive orders from President Donald Trump, nationwide protests, constitutional confrontations, disquieting headlines, fake news, alternative facts, and the crippling embarrassment that are the New York Knicks. You still think Roger Federer and Tom Brady are such hot stuff? The Standard & Poor’s 500 index hasn’t seen a feat of such stamina and resolve since 2006, and before that, 1995, notes Bespoke Investment Group.

It’s easy to be hypnotized by stocks’ meltup, especially since the market’s calm stands in such stark contrast to Washington’s chaos. But how long can stocks remain an oasis of serenity? 

There are good reasons why a 1% pullback has become as rare as civility in Internet comments sections.

U.S. earnings are ticking up anew, and global economic data is improving. There are even those, like Deutsche Bank strategist Binky Chadha, who argue that stocks’ postelection surge merely reflected the dissipation of uncertainty following tight elections, and not Trump’s promised tax cuts and fiscal spending.

“With little priced in for policy changes, selloffs on any stimulus disappointment should be short-lived,” he writes. Above all, trillions printed by global central banks now sit uncomfortably in bonds and unprofitably in cash, and computerized trading based on patterns established during years of abnormal monetary largesse keeps up the blind buying of pricey stocks.

Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s chief investment strategist, says what he calls the market’s three Ps—positioning, profits, and policies—seem “consistent with one last 10% melt-up in stocks and commodities in 2017.” Among the many indicators he watches, the firm’s proprietary bull-and-bear barometer (of fund flows, positioning, and technical data) has risen to a 2½-year high, but is still shy of a sell signal. Fund-manager surveys show institutional cash balances at about 5.1% of portfolios, above a 10-year average of 4.5%. But indicators of market breadth show that 76% of global stock markets today are overbought, quite a change from a year ago when 89% of stock markets were oversold.

“Measuring fear is easier than measuring greed,” Hartnett writes, which is why stock-market bottoms often arrive quickly, but forming a market top can take much longer.

So what are some risks that can eventually test stocks’ mettle? The dissolution of a 35-year bond bull market should worry investors, although it has become easy to overlook that risk as bonds’ selloff slowed, and the yield on 10-year Treasuries began to consolidate near 2.5%. But make no mistake: The unwinding of one of the planet’s biggest bubbles isn’t behind us; in fact, it has barely begun, what with 10-year government bonds yielding just 0.08% in Japan and 0.32% in Germany. Here in the U.S., rates have ticked up from record lows but are still historically benign. Yet auto sales, mortgage applications, and home sales weakened in January, and personal bankruptcy filings are up 5.4%. Meanwhile, foreigners seem less willing to hoover up our bonds, and the level of U.S. Treasuries held abroad just fell below 30% for the first time since 2009.

Next, Trump’s plan to make big changes to our economy also increases the risk of policy error. Will bullying corporations from venturing abroad really overcome the structural changes wreaked by automation and globalization? According to Goldman Sachs’ economists, less than 2.5% of layoffs from 2004 to 2012 were due to the relocation of jobs abroad. U.S manufacturing actually has become more competitive since 2000, but the decline in manufacturing’s share of all jobs has merely slowed, not reversed. Besides, Americans have also benefited from global trade—prices we pay for durable goods have declined since 1995. And emerging markets don’t just sell us stuff, their burgeoning middle classes are some of our fastest-growing customers. Apple (ticker: AAPL), for instance, earns a quarter of its revenue from emerging Asia, while Boeing (BA) earns 30% from emerging markets.

MEANWHILE, CHINA’S STOCKPILE of foreign-exchange reserves has shrunk to $2.998 trillion from nearly $4 trillion as recently as 2014. This puts Beijing in a increasingly tight spot: Should it keep spending its dwindling reserves to prop up its currency and maintain a stable exchange rate, or should it just let the yuan fall to market levels?

China’s reserves are shrinking because its exports have been falling, and rates are rising faster in the U.S.

The Chinese, who fear further depreciation, have been yanking yuan out of the mainland hand over fist, and buying up everything from U.S. companies to Manhattan condos. In 2016, China’s foreign direct investment jumped 189% to North America and 90% to Europe, notes Baker McKenzie.

Letting the yuan float freely could eventually boost Chinese exports, stem capital flight, and increase inflation that can help reduce the real value of its debt overhang, notes William Adams, PNC’s senior international economist. But in the short term, it could roil global markets and cause commodity demand and prices to gap lower, hurting inflation expectations and rates. Adams isn’t forecasting a yuan free float in 2017. “But without knowing the People’s Bank of China’s magic number—the minimum level of foreign reserves they’re willing to accept—the possibility cannot be excluded,” he says. This time last year, concerns about China and falling oil prices triggered a 13% U.S. correction. Let’s hope a year has made all the difference.